So, I want to talk about Tera Team Preview. I'm pro-ban on Tera (and still am), but in the previous suspect test, I decided I favoured Tera Team Preview to No Action. "Even a mild restriction on Tera is better than nothing", I thought to myself.
But having played and watched the metagame for a few more months, and seen Tera's impact on high-level play, I no longer believe Tera Team Preview is a good restriction. On the contrary, I earnestly believe it would be significantly worse than No Action.
First, let me go over the merits of No Action. Though I do think Tera's existence lowers the skill cap along some axes, it also undeniably raises it in other ways.
CBB gives a fantastic defense of this viewpoint in this post, and while I disagree with the balance of the final calculus coming up in favour of Tera, it would be erroneous to discount this aspect entirely. The existence of Terastallize adds multiple axes for skill expression, like:
- needing to predict your opponent's Tera types based on team structure and how they're playing,
- needing to account for ambiguity in whether a given situation is capable of being a win condition (e.g. you might not be able to guarantee an endgame Baxcalibur sweep if there's a Tera Water Tusk in there),
- needing to answer threats proactively,
- being unable to rely on a single Pokemon or a straightforward counterplay as a foolproof bulwark against a given threat (e.g. you can't just smack a Dondozo on your team and be 100% safe vs physical Valiant, you need to have contingencies in place for Tera Electric),
- rewarding creative teambuilding using well-tailored sets (e.g. decisions about Garganacl's Tera type), unusual sets, and targeted lures,
- allowing contingencies for the neutralization of bad matchups through a niche Tera option (say, maybe there's a Pokemon that would sweep you if not for a super niche choice like Tera Ground on your Rotom-W or something),
- rewarding picking good moments in the match to Tera, and
- creating a new form of skill expression in how effectively you pressure your opponent to Tera preemptively.
Now, you can dispute many of these individual points. For example, I would argue that the ability of Tera (or at least Tera with Tera Blast in existence) to create devastating matchup-fishes like Tera Water/Fairy/Rock/Fighting Volcarona or Tera Electric/Water Valiant or Tera Fire Baxcalibur outweighs the positive matchup-negation of #6, or that #4 is just a fancy way of saying "you can't be sure what counters what anymore and have to rely on your team 'accidentally' checking offbeat sets". But I think it's undeniable that Tera facilitates and promotes at least
some level of skill, and that if we are to vote to keep Tera in the tier, we should prioritize preserving that skill aspect.
And this is why I think Tera Team Preview is a terrible option.
Though I dislike Tera, I do concede that just because something "makes Tera 5% less powerful" does not mean it makes the metagame better as a whole. If we decide to not ban Tera, we ought to instead try and create a metagame that nurtures and celebrates the skill that Tera does promote, rather than actively suppressing it. So if that "make Tera 5% less powerful" actively removes a large chunk of the skill expression from Tera, it is worse than the status quo; it preserves the problematic parts of the mechanic while neutering the positives. And I believe Tera Team Preview does this.
I do not claim the list I provided above is at all exhaustive, but it can still serve as a good rhetorical heuristic for determining the potential negative consequences of restrictions on Tera's skill expression. Let me go through point-by-point and assess the impact of Tera on each access of skill expression I outlined (which is, again, not exhaustive).
- needing to predict your opponent's Tera types based on team structure and how they're playing — Tera Team Preview eliminates this.
- needing to account for ambiguity in whether a given situation is capable of being a win condition — Tera Team Preview vastly reduces this by making it far more clear what a win condition looks like (though the presence or absence of Tera Blast as well as ambiguity about what will Tera and when still plays a role).
- needing to answer threats proactively — Tera Team Preview does allow for less "ambiguity" in whether something needs to be answered proactively, but also makes it more straightforward how to do so. You could argue this makes for more strategic and specific gameplay, but I think on net we can say that Tera Team Preview slightly reduces this as it means that you only need to answer threats proactively under certain restrictions.
- being unable to rely on a single Pokemon or a straightforward counterplay as a foolproof bulwark against a given threat — Tera Team Preview barely affects this except perhaps in generally nerfing offbeat forms of Tera and thereby reducing the full range of options to account for (see the next point).
- rewarding creative teambuilding using well-tailored sets, unusual sets, and targeted lures — Tera Team Preview vastly reduces this, particularly by strongly disincentivizing more niche options and making lures essentially ineffective.
- allowing contingencies for the neutralization of bad matchups through a niche Tera option — Tera Team Preview somewhat reduces this as the way many of these options work is via the element of surprise suddenly stopping a sweep or crippling an opposing Pokemon.
- rewarding picking good moments in the match to Tera — Tera Team Preview significantly increases this by giving a skillful player more information to use in making the decision, but also somewhat decreases this by removing ambiguities in the decision-making process. On net, I would be inclined to think Team Preview's effects on this point are overall positive.
- creating a new form of skill expression in how effectively you pressure your opponent to Tera preemptively — Tera team preview increases this by allowing you to identify under what situations a Pokemon might want to Tera and being able to bait it out, but also slightly decreases this by discouraging preemptive Teras (for example, your opponent might Tera a Pokemon and go for a strong neutral Tera Blast as a midground between your Kingambit Tera'ing or staying unTera'd — Nat mentions in this post not losing to a Tera Kingambit even once in recent memory, and I think being able to make midgrounds like this is a large part of that). Again, on net I think Tera Team Preview is positive towards this point, but it's unclear to me.
Going through my list (which is, of course, imperfect — it's incomplete, some aspects of Tera are effectively repeated in multiple options, and different points ought to have different weights — so don't take it as gospel, just as a rough heuristic to think about the different positive effects of Tera on the metagame), we find that, for most points, Tera Team Preview seems to lower skill expression. The two points I found where Tera could arguably increase skill expression (#7 and #8) were both somewhat ambiguous, with positive and negative effects, and in fact I only included #8 on the list in the first place out of a good-faith attempt to find situations that justify Tera Team Preview (I think most players would agree that #8 is the weakest point in the list).
Ultimately, I think Tera Team Preview comes at significant costs to the positive aspects of keeping Tera in the tier, while being unclear as to what extent it addresses the negative aspects. For this reason, I think Tera Team Preview would be a terrible choice, and favour No Action over it.
By point of comparison, allow me to look at an option I originally clowned on — banning Tera Blast. I originally did not like this, and while I still don't think it addresses many problematic points of Tera, it does reduce a significant amount of the mechanic's potential for matchup-fishing which is, in my experience and from what I've read of other players, the most unambiguously uncompetitive part of Tera (it led to Volcarona's ban, for example).
- needing to predict your opponent's Tera types based on team structure and how they're playing — banning Tera Blast affects this by reducing the amount of viable offensive Teras, but it's unclear to me whether that affect on skill expression is positive or negative. I think it's overall positive, since looking at Volcarona for example, there were a lot of situations where Volcarona's potential Tera choice given the matchup was, like, 6 options long, and this would reduce the overall delta of choices and make it more feasible to account for the full gamut of possibilities. Unclear, but I lean banning Tera Blast having a slight positive effect.
- needing to account for ambiguity in whether a given situation is capable of being a win condition — banning Tera Blast does not affect this "on your side" (i.e. you still know whether your own mon is a win condition) but somewhat reduces this "on the other side" (eliminating Tera Blast as an option makes it easier to rule out a lot of potential sweeps).
- needing to answer threats proactively — banning Tera Blast likely does not significantly affect this (at least not disproportionately — when I say "does not affect", of course there are knock-on effects from its impacts on overall gameplay and on the overall metagame, but those are largely accounted for in the other points I list, and the impacts not addressed are very hard to predict from a tiering perspective).
- being unable to rely on a single Pokemon or a straightforward counterplay as a foolproof bulwark against a given threat — banning Tera Blast reduces this.
- rewarding creative teambuilding using well-tailored sets, unusual sets, and targeted lures — banning Tera Blast mostly reduces this, though it does slightly increase creativity by encouraging players to scour the movepools of Pokemon to find coverage options that gain STAB with Tera, rather than relying on Tera Blast every time (think of how people ran weird coverage just to use it as a lure with Z-Moves).
- allowing contingencies for the neutralization of bad matchups through a niche Tera option — banning Tera Blast likely does not significantly affect this since most bad-matchup neutralization relied on the defensive profile of Tera users rather than their offensive potential.
- rewarding picking good moments in the match to Tera — banning Tera Blast likely does not significantly affect this, or might even have a slight increase in effective skill expression due to an emphasis in Tera being done for general utility rather than "see Pokemon Tera Blast hits SE, click Tera Blast".
- creating a new form of skill expression in how effectively you pressure your opponent to Tera preemptively — banning Tera Blast likely does not significantly affect this, though this particular point is very unclear to me and I could see it going both ways.
As we can see, the impacts of banning Tera Blast on Tera's created opportunities for skill expression, though existent, are far less severe. Of course, banning Tera Blast's effects on the negative aspects of Tera are also much subdued compared to more aggressive action. Obviously, it only affects Tera Blast users, which slightly reduces the power level of the mechanic and might salvage a couple Pokemon from getting banned, but really is mostly an attempt to reduce the MU-fishing nature of Tera. Still, even if I personally believe it to be inadequate at addressing most of the problems with Tera, it does seem that banning Tera Blast comes out favourably in comparison to both Tera Team Preview and to No Action. This post isn't meant to be a defense of banning Tera Blast so I won't hammer this point too much — I just wanted to mention it for comparison.
My current "preference" list of the options that currently have nonnegligible support is Ban Tera > Ban Tera Blast > No Action > Tera Team Preview. None of the other options proposed so far seem feasible to me, neither in terms of effectiveness nor in terms of conformance towards tiering policy (even Tera Team Preview is on shaky ground in this regard, as that VGC "precedent" isn't really much precedent at all — it's transparently meant to be an anti-cheating measure, not a balancing measure, as evidenced by it only applying to tournament play rather than online play).