Tiebreak
16. Raiza (60) VS. (40) 16. Typhlosion48 - Cool match-up for a tiebreak. Typhlosion has quietly made waves in officials over the last year or two whereas Raiza has been on the brink of excellence recently himself. I feel like Raiza is the stronger overall player and likely has been around long enough to fully grasp ORAS whereas Typhlosion is more likely to thrive in SM or even SS. Overall, I would slightly favor Raiza due to experience and likely support (see: Italy), but I think Typh will take at least one of SS/SM to make it go three.
Round 1
1.
Empo (70) VS. 16. Tiebreak winner - No matter who advances, Empo will be favored. He has demonstrated unprecedented levels of dominance in recent months across SS and SM. His ORAS is no joke either, but he's probably more beatable here than the other two at least. I think that he matches up well against both and should not have much trouble here.
2.
ABR (65) VS. 15. Ash KetchumGamer - ABR is probably the favorite in this field despite Empo's ridiculous regular season. Regardless of who may be favored overall, ABR is surely favored in this match-up in particular. Ash may be able to take a game because he uses surprising teams and makes some aggressive plays, which he deserves a lot of credit for, but ABR is fundamentally sound and much less likely to misplay throughout the series.
3. Finchinator VS. 14. Corazan - Sunday 4pm GMT-4, looking forward to it and have fun!
4.
SoulWind (51) VS. (49) 13. McMeghan - This is as close as it gets. I think that I favor SoulWind just because McMeghan is more likely to bring nonsense, but SoulWind has made some poor plays down the stretch of some important ORAS/SM games which dissuades me from favoring him more heavily. I think both are phenomenal players and even if these are not their best tiers, either could win in this field without surprising anyone. This being a round one pairing is just dumb tbh, but yea I favor SoulWind ever-so-slightly and expect it to go three.
5.
100percentpureheat (55) VS. (45) 12. Bloody alfa - 100p is the future of SS OU if he doesn't get himself banned before that future becomes a reality. His teambuilding is great and he does not seem too scared of the moment either. I think that neither stands out much in SM or ORAS, so I will just favor 100p overall slightly and consider the other two metagames virtual coinflips.
6.
Sayuze (55) VS. (45) 11. MS3D - I don't know much about MS3D, but Sayuze is not bad at all. I think he has a little bit to go to be considered a mainstay in team tournaments still, but he is very motivated and can handle SS / SM decently enough. I do not feel too strongly about this one though.
7.
Santu (60) VS. (40) 10. Eeveeto - Santu quietly has had a nice streak of success recently. His ORAS is superior here and I don't think Eeveeto thrives in any particular metagame so much as he does well when his surprise value picks do well. He can beat anyone in any tier, but he can also fall well short of winning, too, if he goes too far. Santu seems like the more consistent pick and he has had more success historically, so I will give him a solid edge.
8.
Pohjis (65) VS. (35) 9. RedEmption - Pohjis is just better overall. RedEmption is not good at handling late games when under pressure and Pohjis is a pretty strong player throughout all metagames.
tfw I don't pick one upset