Predictions
Circus Maximus Tigers (5) vs (7) Indie Scooters -- I feel like Tigers have a better chance than this reflects given how the two teams have been playing/trending though; the Tigers are hot while the Scooters are ice cold, having underperformed in recent weeks
SV OU: JJ09LIE vs
Xrn - JJ09 is perhaps in better SV OU form, but I am very confident in picking Xrn here. Xrn managed to claw back from an 0-3 start to finish positive in the regular season; couple this upward trend with his affinity for the moment, having won with the season on the line in both WCoP and SCL previously, and you get a prime candidate for a big playoff performance. Xrn is a player I am already high on from prior experience, but I think he has grown better in this metagame with time and this is where he thrives, so I really trust him here. JJ is a really amazing player and I am glad he lived up to -- and even surpassed -- the pre-tour hype I and others had for him. His play is mostly solid and I think he popped off some weeks, but there were a few red flag endgames that he needs to tighten up on. Given this and his lack of experience relative to Xrn, going to have to side with my guy here. Should be a fun one though.
SV OU:
Trosko vs Kushalos - 1-7 is tough man. You gotta have strong mental and confidence in yourself to breakthrough when you see the losses piling up regardless of if it's due to the game, your teams, or your play. Meanwhile Trosko has been one of the steadiest players all season, living up to his pricetag with a 6-2 SV record. What I really think distinguishes the pair apart from their records would be team selection and, as a result of this, piloting. Most weeks Trosko uses something fresh based off of (what I can only ssume to be) his own ideas and his own metagame vision, opponent expectations, etc. -- I think that he is going to always be comfortable going into games. As for Kushalos, it is more scattered with an offensive focus most weeks and I am not sure how comfortable he gets or what his process may be. Maybe this week he gets into his best form yet and pops off as Kushalos' pedigree is there, but I gotta go with the hot hand right now and bold Trosko
SV OU: Storm Zone vs
hellom - Storm has ascended from ladder hero to tournament standout over the last year or two; he has tightened things up recently, too, as he went from 2-3 to 5-3 as he kept a strong OST run going. If anyone can take down hellom, it may very well be another top player like Storm Zone. However, I do think that hellom is the protagonist in this story and perhaps in this SPL altogether -- 9-0 in your debut in a metagame riddled with chaos that experienced numerous mid-tournament shifts is nothing to overlook. hellom's few cracks have been with details in later games, but those have still been overcome and I think his play got even more steady as the season progressed. While his win last week was pretty much a freebie, his schedule and wins need to be respected on the whole. Same goes for Storm of course, but I think I will side with hellom until proven wrong at this point. Huge highlight with two great ones.
SV OU: S1nn0hC0nfirm3d vs
Akalli - Akalli chilling at 5-2 for 5k is one of the most impressive value picks. However, S1nn0h going 5-4 across two tiers for only 5.5k is also great. The main distinguishing factor between the two, who I both view as strong players, is that Akalli is more seasoned in OU. He is a capable builder with a ton of experience playing between ladder in tournaments; his ear is to the ground as the ripples of the metagame continue to show themselves, giving him a leg-up in the preparation department as well as in-game execution and expectations. S1nn0h probably has the more outplaying potential of the two given his dynamic SCL showing and general track record, but SV OU is a hard tier to assimilate to stardom in, especially given an abbreviated window. I still think he has close to an even shot here, but I favor Akalli given what I have seen from both.
SS OU:
Garay oak vs Hayburner - Hayburner is an underrated player who has a nice 4-2 run going in SS this SPL. I still think he has shown a few litle holes in his game trying to maneuver late games or drawn out games, but his teams are all solid and he is comfortable with the metagame it seems. Garay, on the flip side, is 3-6 across four different tiers with 5 straight mid-season losses. I think this record does not fit his play as he has been unfortunate at times and also switching around a fair bit. Another factor here is Garay is one of the most clutch players on Smogon, having consistently done well in playoffs/tiebreak while also winning Grand Slam against some strong opponents. I think he is going to thrive in these conditions and expect him to be the best of the 4 SS players in these playoffs if his mental is still good regardless of his record.
SM OU: c0mp vs
Welli0u - Well has been better than his record, which says a lot given that he is still 6-3. His lost last week felt a little bizarre because Skype had a lot less to lose while his loss against Qwily was awkward given the Kartana set situation for those who followed. Prior to that, Well was 6-0 in his last 6 games, only losing W1 to Charmflash using Porygon-Z. I think he will rise to the occasion in the playoffs like he did during parts of SCL, where he won his first 3 playoff contests. c0mp I think is a solid fill-in starter across fairygens; having worked with him last year, I am confident he deserves a slot, but I do think it will be a challenge to take down a top player unless he and z0mOG have a prep masterclass.
ORAS OU: London Beats vs
Niko - Niko has played a ton of high-level ORAS OU between SPL, Invitational, Masters, and probably other tournaments. I do value that depth of experience when it comes to high-stake games like this as it will be harder to put him in an uncomfortable position; his playstyle is also pretty dynamic with a lot of hard offenses and fat balances, which makes prepping for him a challenge. London, similarly to c0mp, is a strong enough pilot and someone who has had his fair share of big wins over the years. However, it feels like this will be uphill from him just given where I rate them both. I do not buy into the Niko going 5-0 to 5-4 much either as part of this was just how the matchups broke and how the Pokemon happened -- I view Niko as a positive player in this pool and London as middle of the pack overall. Obviously either is capable of winning and London has a lot of great support on-board, but I will favor Niko to stop the losing streak here.
BW OU: sensei axew vs
elodin - Two great BW players with sensei being newer to the fray over the last couple years and elodin being a seasoned veteran. I think elodin has adopted a playstyle that is able to cover a wide array of possible matchups in the metagame, which is huge given how volatile some BW games seem to be. Overall, I really trust his team selection process and piloting even if there have been a few small cracks in mid-late games. sensei is a similarly capable player, but I am less familiar with his preparation and building. This is a really big part of BW and I am just admitting I am unsure what to expect from him while I have full faith in elodin, so going to side with that more than I am going firmly against sensei at this point. Should be an exciting, close game.
DPP OU:
Le Don vs Sergio Aguero
ADV OU:
M Dragon vs SEA
GSC OU:
RealJester vs vani
RBY OU: Green on fire vs
Gefährlicher Random
Dragonspiral Tyrants (6) vs (6) Alpha Ruiners
SV OU: Luispeikou vs
xavgb - xavgb is not as fond of this metagame, but he still has been playing mostly well. The main barrier/difference is team selection and finding that same degree of confidence he had in prior metagames. I think with everything on the line, he is going to make it work. He has plenty of informed SV players on his side, he has more experience than anyone in this generation, and his skill ceiling is second-to-none. I am very confident he will put it together, I believe his playoff blues are more small sample than they are genuine, and I believe he will assert himself as a top player here. Luis is solid, but this is just a very hard match-up for him. I will not rule him out due to lordsquads and great support, but this is going to be uphill if all else is equal.
SV OU:
Poek vs Fc - Poek has been underwhelming all season long. I think he is a great player historically, but probably came into this season without much recent metagame experience in SM and even his win against QWILY had some
.
However, he did win last week in a lower pressure game I was wrong, confused games and didn't remember the last turn LMAO MB and I think shifting to SV is a great idea for him. For starters, he is going to have the support of great teams that could very well be ahead of the curve with numerous teammates able to assure he gets in form. On top of this, he is just too good a player to lose consistently at this level with these opponents -- look at his historic track record relative to his performance right now. I do not think he is crust quite yet and I think this is the perfect setting for a pop-off. Plus, no way am I picking the Tyrants to go 0-4 in SV with the in-house people they had. Match-ups broke awkwardly with them with java vs mike arguably, but I think they can push through this one and maybe another. As for Fc, he is a good player who uses solid, mostly offensive builds and has great influencers in-house as well. I think he got frustrated with a really unfortunate game last week he always should've won with neutral luck and he
SV OU: Mada vs
Raptor - Raptor has used some cool teams and played mostly well outside of a late game or two. I think he is more polished and experienced. Mada is an underrated player with a great 3-0 start, but I do think this is going to be a challenging opponent, especially relative to the three he has faced so far. I think Mada's team selection and team support is great, but I do feel Raptor the individual player and builder is stronger in the present day. This is closer than many would think just based on sheer name recognition as Mada, in my opinion, is very much legit. However, I will go with Raptor just based off of resume and feel for the time being.
SV OU: myjava vs
oldspicemike - An absolute highlight from two names you may not even recognize in tournament circles at the start of the generation! java was given an opportuntiy and ran with it, going 5-1 against a respectable group of opponents. In fact, he handed oldspicemike his only loss of the season, which makes the rematch even more intriguing. As for mike, what can you even say at this point? Dude has taken every opportunity of his own and been an absolute beast. Huge SCL into an even more impressive SPL despite facing strong opponents and metagame obstacles galore. Both use good, unique team structures and make plays that show their experience in the metagame rather than just clicking around. I would bold both against most others right now, but this is a rough one and you gotta take a side. I find winning rematches harder than th initial game usually and mike has a larger sample to go off of, so I will side with him, but this is more 51/49 than it is 65/35 or anything like that. Must-see TV for SV enthusiasts!
SS OU:
damien the genius vs Jytcampbell - Jyt has done a bit better than I anticipated, but I think he shows occasional holes in his game. Overall, he is a great dude and brings strong teams each week, but I think damien is more in touch with current SS than just a pilot, which I view Jyt as, and this will help distinguish the two. I really like damien's style he carved out for himself and I have confidence in him to bounce back after losing the last two.
SM OU: DonSalvatore vs
Charmflash - Don has quietly turned his season around with 2 wins to get him back to positive and this is all after a superb run in Masters; I think he is developing into a great player across fairygens. However, Charmflash has been great -- you can like him or not, but his teams have been distinguished, his plays have been mostly on-point, and the results show. The Ruiners took a risk in fielding him as a starter and he came through to the tune of 7 wins for 4k, which may be one of the best values in any old generation slot. Hard to pick against that here for me.
ORAS OU:
CrashinBoomBang vs pj - Rough season for CBB and I think he will be the first to admit this, but he is by no means washed or a bad player. I think the ideas are there and the final execution in the builder/game just needs to keep refining itself. I expect him to "upset" pj -- and I do think it is an upset as while CBB's name recognition is historically stronger, pj is better by 2 games this SPL and also won ORAS invitational. pj has become a really strong ORAS option over the last few years and his resume shows it. Mainly going off a gut feeling, but I mainly think CBB knows what it would mean to finally win with the Tyrants and will find a way now that it is playoff time.
BW OU:
SoulWind vs Fakes - With all due respect paid to dice, these two are the two best BW players of SPL. Fakes has done it in more impressive fashion to me, winning the head-to-head and having one of his losses due to pretty awful luck (albeit he also did not play fully optimal) while finishing with the slightly better record. Of course, 6-3 is no joke either and SoulWind is no stranger from the moment. His 6-3 is a little silly, too, given thath is W9 game did not matter and he ran into nonsense after all. He is the BW GOAT and his teams have grown with the metagame, even setting trends in the same fashion they used to with some of his fat builds. I think that SoulWind will avoid awkward early game scipt positions like he ended up in last time against Fakes where Ferro got a free kill on Rotom-W. From there, I think it is close to even, but SoulWind is more experienced and has a greater potential for bringing something with good match-up coverage. Fakes has used great teams all season for sure, but anyone will admit their hands will be full prepping for SoulWind after all. I am very excited for this one and hope it is clean. Should be a major highlight with both being amazing so far.
DPP OU: Dridri457 vs
Malekith
ADV OU: pkThunderbolt vs
baddummy
GSC OU:
Rubyblood vs Siatam
RBY OU:
Heroic Troller vs Khaetis
Tiebreak
SV OU: myjava vs
xavgb (I could see xavgb picking SS with oldspicemike in SV and then him drawing SoulWind with java-mike rematch in SV, too) - myjava deserves his praise and it is tough to have him drawing two losses in the same prediction post after such a stellar run, but his opponents tell more of the story than anything there -- xavgb is another great player and I went off above about how I feel about his capabilities. Would be another highlight game to potentially decide things though.
SV OU:
SoulWind vs oldspicemike - Going to be hard for me to bold against Mike with his record and continued success, but I do not think many people are above 50/50 with SoulWind as things stand. The guy manages to win far more often than not across so many different generations. Mike is obviously more experienced and been doing this for multiple full seasons now, but my gut says SW will find a way to win with the support of CTC, blunder, and Java in some capacity.
RBY OU:
Heroic Troller vs Malekith
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