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NOC Smogon Mafia Mafia (Won by the Mafia)
- Thread starter imperfectluck
- Start date
Depends on what abilities zippy flips with but really what thay would imply is 3p is someone else entirely which is why you shoot realiti there
how does that imply 3p is not sam
Because 3p sam accurately lynching mafia is insane
If Zippy flips Mafia Ehmcee can shoot realiti, Hudro can vanilla check Tiger, and Sam can be lynched if neither of those hit 3p
this is fine to win the game if we believe we have 100% of Sam's roles but I'm just worried that he has extra bs on top of everything he claimed
If he doesn't they left 2 conf town alive which make it even harder.
he's basically conf town and confirms another person
casing Sam is just like casing celever where they're going to come up with a bs reason for every action they took so I'm not going to bother
martyring fairy is a very self-pres 3p play and they wouldn't have claimed their role at all if they weren't vanilla copped even though they had a red check on zippy. And thats on top of everything else sus about their play. And the HH rb is still unclaimed.
anyways to reiterate I'm vt and advocating voting sam -> shooting zippy, am also fine with voting zippy -> shooting sam, shooting me is fine but we lose in like 5% of universes. don't really have too much else to say
martyring fairy is a very self-pres 3p play and they wouldn't have claimed their role at all if they weren't vanilla copped even though they had a red check on zippy. And thats on top of everything else sus about their play. And the HH rb is still unclaimed.
anyways to reiterate I'm vt and advocating voting sam -> shooting zippy, am also fine with voting zippy -> shooting sam, shooting me is fine but we lose in like 5% of universes. don't really have too much else to say
Martyring fairy is fine to prove the claim and ensure your tracker info survives.
I advocate shooting Sam in all other cases but if he actually lynches the last mafia he's probably just telling the truth and we have a plan to deal with him regardless. I believe a 3p Sam never lynches the mafia because he can do the math and he knows he'll just lose
I advocate shooting Sam in all other cases but if he actually lynches the last mafia he's probably just telling the truth and we have a plan to deal with him regardless. I believe a 3p Sam never lynches the mafia because he can do the math and he knows he'll just lose
Blazade it's fine you're not going to convince Realiti that I'm not 3p because Realiti knows I'm by far his best chance to convince others that he isn't 3p. It also won't matter as long as we vote correctly (i.e. Zippy) today.
Unfortunately Realiti I know that you had to make this post in order to have a chance at winning but we both know that town!Realiti never makes it. The reason is that you've done the math and realized that you HAVE to save Zippy here today in order to have a chance at winning.
If I'm 3p I also know this and I would never out the last mafia, which Blazade has realized and is why he's defending me.
The context clues really are very obvious to anyone paying attention that it's just always Realiti here, but again as long as we vote Zippy out today it won't matter who Ehmcee shoots. If he shoots me, you vote out Realiti tomorrow. If he shoots Realiti, we win tonight. Easy W either way.
The only way we can lose is if you follow Realiti's plan and vote me out today. Then it is 5v1v1 and there are two bad kills floating around. I still think town should be able to win in that scenario but it's uncomfortably close and the fact that we don't know Realiti's role powers scares me.
Now I still believe that town is likely to win in that instance, but it should be obvious that the case Realiti is desperately trying to push is the literal only scenario where we don't win. It should also be obvious that my strategy / plan wins every single time without fail. Simply by comparing the two town should be able to tell which of Realiti and I are 3p and which is town (Ehmcee a fairy HydrogenHydreigon this last part is the most critical to consider and think through).
Consider why Realiti would be desperately trying to build a case against me and trying his best to save / ignore Zippy. He knows there aren't two town announcers, and he knows that Zippy is the last mafia. I don't even think he's denied that? And yet he still says he wants to push me anyway. It's insanity that is purely the result of being backed into a corner as 3p with no other option than to push for the best mechanical option for a mis-vote.
Finally, consider my motivations and willingness to be sussed / shot. It's because I know that no matter what, all I need to do is tell the truth and continue to re-iterate the strategic considerations and we will win 100%. I don't care about being shot tonight because I still win even if Ehmcee shoots me, because the rest of you will realize I was right and vote Realiti tomorrow. Realiti desperately cares about being shot tonight because he will not be able to win if he is.
tl;dr we vote Zippy here, then Ehmcee can use his best judgment as to who to shoot. Town wins, gg, go next.
I'll be working for a while so hopefully you all don't throw while I'm away.
I will also say that technically there's still a mechanical chance that tigershark is 3p and just lying low. I think given Realiti's posting it is 99% him but I just want the rest of the village to keep that in mind because we should be thinking of how to maximize our winning chances here. Please continue to think critically and don't sheep things in future cycles Ehmcee looking at you in particular. Listen to Blazade's night action plans (I guess he also technically could still be 3p but at this point I'm pretty sold on it just being Realiti so w.e if he is then ggwp to Blazade so I'm just gonna assume he is town at this point).
HydrogenHydreigon check Tiger tonight
Don't you mean the opposite