well before this suspect ends, i suppose i might asw come from the dead 2 chime in bc i feel like vanilluxe is not actually a perpetrator but a symptom of a long-running problem in this tier
initially, when i saw the discussion around vani & saw the suspect get posted, i was somewhat on the fence but leaning towards ban; it's certainly true that vani is quite lacking in defensive answers & can put nearly unprecedented pressure on slower teams. however, after going thru recent high lvl replays & reading the posts in the thread, i feel i stand pretty firmly on the no ban side as well. the pro ban arguments have been pretty severely lacking, imo, & also often fail 2 take a look at the wider picture of vanis effect on the meta. i think gum + sensei pretty much hit the nail on the head wrt how vani is demonstrably not an overbearing force in the meta, but theres a ocuple points i want to put in as well & my fingers are itching to post so.
first, nearly every post cites vani as a not prediction heavy breaker. i think this is just... patently untrue, actually. in order 2 be the truly unwallable force it is made out 2 be, vani has 2 choose between three moves - blizz shreds 70% of the tier, but is pretty comfortably stomached by our various waters + niche bulkier fire types and, ofc, gigalith. freeze dry takes care of the waters but makes pretty minimal progress against the other blizz switchins, and is additionally abusable by the likes of zard (it's faster so u can simply roost on fd and live the subsequent one) or doublade (taking 40 is nbd when u can trade it for winning the game. more on this later). lastly, water pulse hits fires like coal and centi while also being the best option vs aggron.
we all know this already, but what ppl r ignoring fsr is the fact that vani requires specs to achieve its world-busting power - boots sets r lackluster in2 a lot of matchups & only somewhat decent in2 others. so by the very definition of a choiced breaker, it has 2 predict in order to make the progress that is so terrifying - and this often shows in actual matches, for example
bush v star, where star correctly guesses water pulse into aggron out of the 3 possible vani switchins on bush's side. (bush then proceeds 2 throw away his remaining ice resist by slow u-turning on eldegoss fnr, which is what allows vani to eventually click blizzard & pick up a single additional ko on the now weakened wishi. i have no idea why he did this when he has zard vs tricked specs gigalith... even if he were scared of say, seeds or stun spore, going hard whimsi would have worked just fine; the whimsi has shadow ball for doublade, & star's zard is at 40% with hail up. idk)
i feel by simply looking at the fact that a team w vani on it won at high level, instead of actually analyzing how it was used & how the match unfolded, ppl are painting an unfair picture of vanis effect on the meta.
where the issue truly lies in vanis ability 2 spam uncontested blizzards is often, as gum pointed out, poor choices in building. i'll use
jon v thefranklin as an example here - franklin has
three slow ice weak mons, a pokemon renowed for its inability 2 tank special atks, & the sole member faster than vani on the team cannot ohko it. this is quite literally a dream matchup for vanilluxe... yet "gigalith gets impaired turn 1 & the game is over" ends up being a complete misrepresentation of what actually happens in game. a better summary would be smth along the lines of "gigalith gets impaired turn 1, & vani manages 2 barely eke out a win by manner of sheer absurd luck." let's break this 1 down further:
- gigalith gets tricked a specs turn 1. this in and of itself is simply the result of good play: a great lead matchup + jon using the element of surprise 2 hard read franklin. if the specs was given 2 franklin's bee or eldegoss instead, it could have later been baited into being knocked off by jons sandslash.
- franklin then is given a prime opportunity 2 remove vani from the game & instead opts to click eq to chip sandslash for 15%?? pointless read
- in the subsequent turns, vanilluxe manages to pull out a spectacular show of luck. 1st, it dodges a 50% roll for an ohko (+2 252 SpA Ribombee Moonblast vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Vanilluxe: 261-307 (92.2 - 108.4%) -- 50% chance to OHKO); it's worth noting that had franklin gotten this roll, the game likely just ends on the spot unless jon's audino is encore + toxic or something.
- then, guzzlord dtails audino out to prevent a wish & rolls vani *twice* out of the remaining 4 members.
- and even after all this, vani only manages 2 barely squeeze out the win by freezing a doublade which almost certainly cleans up shop at +2, unless jon manages 2 get lucky again & roll scald on the sleeping wishi. u could argue that this chance 2 freeze is unhealthy given the frequency w which vani clicks ice moves... and i'd agree prolly, cus i hate freeze, but given everything else i think it's incredibly unfair 2 attribute this win solely 2 vani's ability. (you could also argue that rolling dtail into vani is what gave franklin the opportunity 2 win here, as slash or wishi getting healed means doublade cant clean, but that's an entirely diff game at that pt.)
id also like 2 point out that specs magnets would have put in an extremely similar amount of work vs this team by doing nothing but clicking flash cannon; except flash cannon doesnt miss like blizz, magnets would not allow bee to get a chance 2 setup, AND magnets has enough defensive value 2 come in on eldegoss or a predicted giga rock blast. and on top of all this, franklins sole flash cannon switchin is hugely abusable by volt. i think it's an objectively healthy thing that slow, passive teams like this can be abused by strong mid speed breakers w low-to-mediocre defensive value, bc thats smth thats been present in nearly every modern tier on this site.
a lot of ppl end up w extremely slow paced builds that give popular breakers like vani,
gallade, specs jelli, &
magnets (as well as lesser used but still potent breakers like supergeist/
trev, mortar,
abomasnow, &
vika) free reign 2 click attacks as often as they like & reactively answer 2 their damage output with singular answers. ive provided replays of a couple of these mons essentially winning at preview, & all the mons i provided replays 4 have showcased their ability 2 simply win at preview multiple time throughout swiss, pupl & grand slam. i believe this ability 2 simply explode slow teams with one or two good reads or after crippling an overloaded defensive glue is far from exclusive 2 vani, & vanis apparent unhealthiness is mainly due to it being the "easiest" way to do so; but this ignores the fact that vani brings quite literal negative defensive value 2 a team, unlike other breakers which can at least make an effort of hard switching on bulky waters, passive mons like eldegoss, max def sandslash, quagsire, & so on.
the immediate answer 2 these mons is stacking decent checks 2 said breakers, as well as giving urself room 2 outplay them offensively - see
tj v crying, where the combo of giga + centi + toge + specs jelli renders cryings scarf(?) vani basically useless while still being a pretty solid lineup 4 the majority of the tier,
tj v spl4sh where tspikes, gigalith, scyther & doublade combine 2 give vani little enough opportunity until doublade pretty easily finishes up the endgame, or
qwily v tlenit where wish flareon, specs jelli, and offensive pressure from scyther being on field constantly disallow vani from doing much at all. the tj v spl4sh game in specific is important bc it shows a huge flaw in using vani; not only do u essentially give up a slot of defensive utility, but u also give free turns 2 the most dangerous cleaner in the tier, which can pretty quickly spell the end of a game when u no longer have the resources 2 check doublade by trying 2 support vani so hard. u could point 2 vani picking up 3 kos, inlcuding 1 on a gigalith double, as a sign of its brokenness - but it just as frequently ends up on the receiving end of a sweep just by nature of how punishable running it is, & i think that is another sign of balance.
the other answer to the breakers, as shane alluded 2 in his post, is simply running offenses that dont give vani or any other breakers of its ilk any chance 2 breathe. and increasingly ppl r finding that its pretty easy to toss a couple hazard mons, a doublade, and 3-4 demons & simply click buttons w the 1 that shreds the opponent team the quickest. however, shane mentions coalossal as practically required for offense, which is not something im rly seeing.... coalossal hasnt broken past 2 usages in pupl since week two, where, funnily enough, it actually was used more than the then underused vanilluxe. looking at swiss usage stats shows a similar trend, with coalossal only going above 2 usages one time in round 5, where it was used 4 times. to top it off, coal has seen a grand total of 0 uses in slam playoffs - if vani were forcing this mon onto the increasingly popular offensive builds, i feel it would certainly show leagues more often than this.
meteor beam archeops has been one of the most common perpetrators of this style, constituting both a rocker & a hard 2 contest fast breaker at once, but even mons that were almost unheard of b4 this summer like silv-grass, ludicolo, & turtonator have seen quite convincing wins thru structures like this. it seems to me like the pool of offensive wincons & breakers is quite deep & i believe the emergence of varied playstyles & the exploration of previously unused mons is another sign of healthy meta development. however, there is a rsn that these teams weren't seen much prior 2 this summer - they r rather inconsistent, partially due 2 the high amount of luck that intrinsically comes w ultrafast paced teams like these - 1 or 2 turns of poor luck can completely turn the tide for either player.
the bigger factor in their inconsistency, however, is a certain other tier culprit. zard has been the primary cause of the meta gradually slowing 2 a snails pace ever since the offensive water qb slate due to its almost complete lack of long term offensive counterplay, allowing these breakers 2 appear unhealthy bc slow fat balance is the only viable way 2 outlast this mon. like hera & ktut both alluded to, i believe zard is the actual perpetrator of the undesirable trajectory of the meta, & vani is simply exacerbating its effects by piling onto the exact same mons needed 2 check it. their list of defensive switchins reads practically the same: gigalith is the only consistent surefire answer, coalossal counts if u forget that coverage moves exist, and bulky waters like jelli/lanturn/wishi can help stave them off but ultimately dont win in the long run. the differences, however, are that vani completely frontloads its effect, dishing out huge dmg from turn 1 & making ppl go "whoa gigalith just took 40???" whereas zard sits on the field all game & slowly whittles down things until theyre in range of hurricane then simply winning from there - but vani has pretty sufficient counterplay in disallowing it from hitting the field w offensive pressure, hazards, & punishing its choice lock with counter sweeps, where zard has an actual solid defensive profile, recovery, an "immunity" to hazards, along with a rather unfair speed tier that means its only real decent offensive answer is hoping ur archeops can stay alive long enough 2 kill it. i'll refrain from goin 2 much further on this tangent tho as it's a tad outside the scope of the discussion.
despite vanilluxe's flaws, i think u can still make a decent argument for it being "not healthy" as hera said - it's a breaker with absolutely no defensive value or "purpose" other than 2 explode the enemy team, it does force pretty predictable gameplay when it hits the field, & its defensive counterplay is very slim indeed. at the end of the day, i wouldnt be particularly miffed were it 2 leave the tier... but i also find it very odd that a mon that has gigalith as its sole true answer is suddenly problematic when another mon has had the same status for almost a year now? anyways, if u actually read all this instead of skippin 2 the tl;dr ty :)
tl;dr
vani's ability to punish slow teams is not unique & it doesn't excessively outperform the other numerous breakers we have. it is very strong, but exploitable, and is primarily held back by a non existent defensive profile. its presence is actively causing healthy metagame shifts - offense being good now is not a bad thing. vani is simply riding the wave of ppl having been far 2 focused on other impossible 2 handle threat(s). stop using defog zard, it's ass, 2/3 atks zard is the actual chokehold on this meta - test espeon and/or drampa if we need hazard control that bad. also we might need 2 start looking at scyther harder that mon is a little crazy