Here is a way to work out approximately what your deviation sigma will become on the following day if you play g amount of battles in a day:
Step 1) Start with your sigma (rating deviation), square it, and multiply the answer by 5.302. Then add 576 to the resulting number.
Step 2) Divide 160000 by the number found in Step 1.
Step 3) Divide the number of games g played by 4.717, then add this number to the number found in Step 2.
Step 4) Raise the number found in Step 3 by the power -0.5.
Step 5) The new deviation will be approximately equal to the number found in Step 4 multiplied by 173.7178.
This can be written by the following formula:
Code:
New Deviation ~= 173.7178 x (160000 / (5.302 x sigma^2 + 576) + (g / 4.717)) ^ -0.5
For example, suppose I have a deviation of 60, and I play 5 battles in a day.
Step 1) 60^2 = 3600. 3600 x 5.302 = 19087.2. 19087.2 + 576 = 19663.2.
Step 2) 160000 / 19663.2 = 8.137.
Step 3) 5 / 4.717 = 1.06. 8.137 + 1.06 = 9.197.
Step 4) 9.197 ^ -0.5 = 0.3297.
Step 5) New deviation is approximately 0.3297 x 173.7178 =
57.28.