Is Unpredictability a Strategy?

[Away]

Mentioning unpredictability, like seriously. Why does nobody run Natural Gift on Gyarados? I'm dead serious, Gyarados is one of the best users of this attack. One of Gyarados's biggest problems is getting good type coverage on other water types. One way he can solve that problem is by running Natural Gift with a Liechi or Belue Berry (along with the standard Waterfall and Ice Fang).

This is great for two reasons. Currently nobody suspects this strategy at all. And this more often than not is able to completely maul one of Gyarados's counters, opening up a sweep.

I don't think Natural Gift would OHKO another water type unless you already have a few DD's up. And if you have a few DD's up, Stone Edge would work just fine.

 

[LoveDensity]

Of course standard sets has the best maximum potential to be best in a team. But to answer the question: Can deviating from the norm make you one of the 'better players'? Yes, if you know straying from standards can really improve your team or wrecks the current metagame. Unpredictability is also strategy if it fits well in the overall strategy. I know when I first began to play competitively, I loved straying from standards. During the D/P days, I ran a CB Heracross lead in a team that went #2 on ladder. I messed around with Smeargle and ended up creating a team that also went to #2 numerous times. Those teams was successful, not only because of a strategy, because it was extremely good during the metagame.

Examples of scenario individual changes to Pokemon could be adding a little more defensive bulk to things like Salamence if you want to hinder Lucario more because Lucario could destroy your team if Mence is dead or relinquish Sp.Atk evs for HP evs on Rotom-A if the Sp.Atk doesn't hit anything significant hard on the switch. Changes to standard shouldn't be drastic because if you change something to beat this one thing, you can lose potentially to alot more things as others already stated.

 

[A2ZOMG]

I don't think Natural Gift would OHKO another water type unless you already have a few DD's up. And if you have a few DD's up, Stone Edge would work just fine.

You're not 1HKOing Starmie, Swampert, opposing Gyarados, and other dudes with Stone Edge with just 1DD as they switch in. However you can nab that with Natural Gift very easily (base 80 Grass/Electric attack is win). Stone Edge also is an extremely unreliable attack with its pathetic accuracy, so any way of avoiding having to rely on that attack helps.

And this by far is the reason why I'm pissed off at Shoddybattle. I can't run Natural Gift on my Gyarados. =(

 

[Eifie]

I'm running Flamethrower/Psychic as my offensive moves on CM Fable instead of the standard T-Bolt/Ice Beam. Boltbeam gives better neutral coverage, but Flamethrower/Psychic still has pretty nice neutral coverage (resisted by Crawdaunt/Sharpedo, Starmie/Slowbro/Slowking, Houndoom, Heatran and Latias) and is able to hit the ever-common switch-ins to CM Fable for super effective. If most players see a Clefable use Calm Mind, the first thing they do is go to either a steel (Scizor/Lucario) or fighting (Primeape/Machamp/Hitmontop). All that does is gets their counter killed or severely damaged on the switch. If they know I have Flamethrower/Psychic, it becomes much easier to get CMs up since they can't go to a counter.

I know Starmie and Heatran are common, but I can still beat them. Starmie doesn't have anything it can do to me, and the only thing Heatran can do to me is explode. Without any CMs, Starmie's Surf is a 4HKO with LO (3HKO with Specs), and I can CM and heal while being attacked so I will quickly get into the impervious range (where LO Starmie takes more from LO recoil than it's doing to me). Heatran is similar albeit stronger, but once I get a CM or two under my belt it can't touch me either, so I can freely set six CMs up and at six CMs even a resisted, unSTABed Psychic is going to hurt.

 

[BalancedPower]

Sure. Surprise is one of the basis of strategy. That being said a surprise is only a surprise. Past that it doesn't have a lot of depth behind it. Using a military example...If you ambush an enemy, you better make sure you wreck or severely cripple them (With your odd moveset) because if you don't and they regroup they will beat you in a normal fight even if they do lose some men. In the end though it is whatever that works for you. I used to carry a Blaziken in OU, Choice Scarf. And it was awesome, it worked really well, I replaced it because people said Infernape was ten times better and it was ok, but didn't do nearly as well as Blaziken ever did. You just have to find what works for you. My best team right now is actually a really old team that I was using in the first few months of DP. It has changed a bit (No more lead Gross). But if you saw it today you would be like this guy just took the 6 of the most popular pokemon and put them on his team. It works, people call me unoriginal and I am not going to act like I pioneered the pokemon at all, but I caught on to the trend early, and stuck with it while people were yelling. And I won't change my team probably because it works, so that is what really matters in the end, if it works for you no matter how insane it seems to others.

 

[Cathy]

And this by far is the reason why I'm pissed off at Shoddybattle. I can't run Natural Gift on my Gyarados. =(

At least Natural Gift is in Shoddy Battle 2, so you can start tearing up the metagame in a couple months.

 

[SoT]

To answer your question, yes. Unpredictability is a strategy, generally used to open up sweeps by eliminating certain counters. For example, Mix Metagross uses it's unpredictability to rid of Skarmory, Swampert, Forretress, and Hippowdon so it's a a good choice when coupled with Dragon Dance Tyranitar (or Tyranitar in general) for example. However, there is a line before it just becomes gimmicky, and it's usually a good idea not to cross that line.

 

[TSPhoenix]

Yes, however I believe that an unpredictable set must satisfy two criteria.

1. The benefits of using the unorthodox set must outweigh the benefits of using a more standard set. Choice Specs Gyarados is unpredictable, and may score a surprise kill, but it is overall inferior to the standard physical Gyarados.

2. The set must be useful even after the surprise is ruined. This mostly applies to shoddy as you will often face the same opponent more than once in a laddering session. Yes, that Choice Band Blissey nabs a surprise kill, but in all future battles against the same opponent it is useless, if not a liability.

The two go hand in hand pretty much since usually if the set fails to meet the 2nd criteria it also fails to meet the 1st and vice versa.

This is a pretty good set of rules.

One of the most amazing things I've seen is when Donut (IIRC) first started using SubRev Yanma. It was just a very clever moveset. In DP the more common set is Specs Yanmega so running the SubRev set can often work well, and instead of getting killed by SR he can use it to setup quicker. Look at Garchomp, Draco Meteor was considered useless until someone (forgot who, sorry) thought about it a bit and came up with the most devastating set since Bellyzard in 200.

One tip in remaining unpredictable is to run variants. Sometimes I'd run CM and sometimes Counter, so when rebattled someone they would only think they know what I had.

In ADV I used to have Metagross problems so I'd bring in Slowbro. I ran Rest, Surf, CM/Counter (the two variants) and Fire Blast. Fire Blast/Counter turned out to be very useful, and often crippled opponents expecting a Ice Beam/Psychic.

Similarly back then all Venusaur were Physical, Razor Leaf/Hidden Power were its best special attacks. That said it did have the terrible Frenzy Plant, yet it often secured crucial KOs and after some testing I found that this rarely resulted in something setting up for a sweep. Considering Venusaur typically only ran less than a dozen moves most people expected some kind of status/physical build, my crazy set often worked. Yet at the same time it could shut down counters reducing the risk. One of the things about testing sets like this is that you should expect to lose a lot during the testing and tweaking process. I probably wouldn't use it in a tourney, but it was fun and worked more often than not.

Deviating from the standard applies to EVs too. Investing in defenses can often stop counters thinking they have a guaranteed OHKO dead in their tracks. Look at the BulkyGyara spread to see how dangerous a well thought out EV allocation can be.

Uncertainty can be very unsettling, any Pokemon that can run a number of sets is inherently threatening because you don't know what its going to do. A Pokemon that is known for Subpunching isn't going to attract a Blissey switchin, but one that usually CMs can suprise Blissey with a Focus Punch for a 2HKO, forcing it out while still remaining safe behind a sub with two spare moves to use the CM.

Also occasionally you'll run into a Pokemon that you don't know a lot about, that can be pretty unsettling too.

For example, you have your Skarmory out against an Infernape, and he knows you have a Heatran waiting in the wings. He selects Close Combat to destroy the obvious Heatran switchin, so you use Brave Bird and OHKO Infernape while taking a small amount of damage.

That is outpredicting rather than being unpredictable. If your move choice relies on info about their team they may predict your move based on that knowledge.

For example say Ice Beam does 40% and Thunderbolt does 80%, and they know you have neither move. In this situation you can often use either move randomly as Ice Beam + TB is a KO, and it prevents your opponent from learning a pattern so they can safely switch into a predicted move. If you IB they will maybe think you don't have TB and get killed, if you IB and they switch expecting TB you probably hit for at least neutral damage if not SE. Boltbeam isn't just good for coverage, but because it allows you to play mind games while usually hitting at least neutral.

Same principle applies to Pokemon that run/can run mixed sets. Your opponent has a tougher time knowing what to switch in to take the attack. Its why things like Salamence are so devastating.

Prediction is a two way street, they more you try to predict the more predictable you become.

 

[Quaily]

I have a scarf milotic on my team which I think fits the 'unpredictable' pretty well based on how many things like DD gyrados I get kills off, but ultimately it's just a gimmick. Unpredictability slowly becomes more predictable as more people emulate successful change ups. An example of this is hidden power fire on celebi. Scizor loves to switch into celebi, so people started to use HP fire. Now Scizors are more careful about switching in. You would need to be constantly changing your team as everyone else updates theirs to counter a new threat.

 

[A.P.]

I think this refers back to that cyclical change thread somewhere.

 

[Fear The Pika]

Philip for example is a great example of a creative player who does it well. He like being creative for the sake of it but he gains from it because his sets are actually good and works with the rest of the team.

Thanks for the compliment, even if it wasn't directed at me.=P

 

[Alchemator]

I think this refers back to that cyclical change thread somewhere.

Yes there are elements of what that user proposes in here about how the metagame keeps changing and evolving but I think this was made before that thread? Or somewhere within a half hour.

 

[mtr]

A reference to me? I'm becoming famous!

Seriously, though: it is pretty related. A great example of a cyclical change, as I mentioned, is the use of Substitute Heatran. It is a set that works primarily on surprise value and rides on the spectre of Scarftran. It has cycled into the metagame. But very soon, people will start using checks like Rest-Talk Gyarados (already a stall staple), Rest-Talk Snorlax, and others, and it will cycle back out.

Surprising and unpredictable sets go a great ways towards creating lasting cyclical changes, or even optimizational changes. Imagine when the first Suicide Lead Azelf was created, which significantly helped optimize the art of selecting a lead.

 

[TSPhoenix]

If a Pokemon has one viable moveset you pretty much know what its going to do. In Heatran's case having at least 3 viable sets means there is an element of unpredictability when you see one. Is it Sub, Scarf, Specs or something else? Then there are things like Clefable which can do pretty much anything.

 

[Alchemator]

Then again with the aforementioned Clefable example, even though I agree it has so many options, you can almost guarantee one move on its set when you see it - probably softboiled.

What mtr12 is referring to is not so much how many options the pokemon has but the assumption of it carrying its 'best' set as far as I see.