The Iranian protests are something that has piqued my interest. I wanted to present new information and pose some further questions as the protests are ongoing. I hope to start a continue a fruitful discussion.
First, I wanted to share an image circulating the internet about women being "freerer" under the Shah.
For more images, please refer to the following article
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/pics/pictures/gallery/life-under-shah-pre-revolutionary-18344744
The image shows a group of women without a hijab reading and writing, implying the regime under the Shah was utopia-like. However, a major piece of context is missing: these women were part of wealthy families so they were allowed to become educated and not where the hijab. The image fails to take into account that this was not the norm in rural communities where a vast majority of Iran's population lived until rapid industrialization and modernization. It also tries to portray the Shah as a benevolent leader when the Shah was a brutal dictator. I would love to see what people's opinions are on these images, whether they are bad because they are misleading or whether they are beneficial to make people in the "West" more sympathetic to the protests. I tend to lean towards them not being beneficial as they give the Ayatollah a propaganda point by highlighting how the "West" thinks the Shah was not authoritarian. This is ironic as the Ayatollahs are also extremely authoritarian.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-first-execution-protests-rcna60703
Further highlighting how mistakes by the "Western" leaders and media could benefit the Ayatollah was a recent story circulated throughout Twitter that claimed that Iran executed 15,000 prisoners (In reality, there were 15,000 people arrested at the time), which Viola Davis and Justin Trudeau shared. This honestly got me thinking about how careful leaders should be with news they share about fragile authoritarian regimes, as likely all politicians who shared this story wanted to use it to make Iran look bad. However, this backfired, giving the Ayatollah some merit to their claims that the "West" is "evil" and is out to get Iran. I would love to hear anyone's opinion on how misinformation impacts protest against authoritarian regimes.
https://iran-hrm.com/2018/10/29/ira...tomb-of-ancient-persian-king-cyrus-the-great/
I couldn't find a recent article on this next update. Still, since 2018 the Iranian government has restricted travel to the tomb of Cyrus the Great on October 29th, an unofficial holiday honoring Cyrus the Great. There are rumors that the Ayatollah may want to destroy the tomb of Cyrus the Great because it represents Iran before Islam. My thoughts on this are that if they plan to destroy the tomb, it is a great shame to lose an important tomb of such an influential figure that is a big part of Iran's (Persia's) rich history. However, I could not find a concrete source on this but access to the tomb is still likely restricted to curb further protests.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-first-execution-protests-rcna60703
Eleven people were executed. The rough estimates state that 18,000 people have been arrested and 475 killed. It seems the protests raging in Iran will likely become more and more brutal.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ias-war-ukraine-could-be-long-one-2022-12-07/
In terms of lessening United States sanctions on Iran. This is unlikely and not politically unfeasible, given that Iran currently supplies Russia with drones it uses in the war against Ukraine. The United States is extremely sympathetic to Ukraine because they were invaded by Russia unjustly, but also it allows the United States to weaken a geopolitical rival significantly. For the sanctions to go, the Iranian people would need to topple the current regime and put in a regime that is not hostile to the "west." (Note the new regime does not have to be democratic to achieve this result. The US has been and still is fine with authoritarian regimes that benefit its interests) If the new regime is willing to sell cheap to oil to the United States then the sanctions will go away regardless of the new regimes form of government.
I also wanted to share two good YouTube videos on the Iranian Protests, one from two months ago and a week ago.
Given Iran's recent brutal response to the protests, I would love to hear everybody's thoughts on these updates and what people think will happen.