Serious 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

[Myzozoa]

it sure seems like there is a potential for a big increase in voter turnout, wonder what the strategic implications of this might be. oh wait, as I have already noted in a past post carefully calibrated to be liked by no one, the only politician who has myzozoa's unconditional endorsement this election cycle stacey abrams has strategized the whole thing out for any candidate to use: https://www.scribd.com/document/425121665/Stacey-Abrams-2020-Playbook

finally a democrat who can carry a politick like a republican

""The 16-page document warns that "any less than full investment in Georgia would amount to strategic malpractice" and urges Democrats to replicate nationally what she did in Georgia by focusing on "expanding the electorate" with people who don't often vote, rather than trying to persuade the "relatively small" number of swing voters."

the explanation of the strategy also brilliantly shows how badly the dnc/hrc campaign was managed in 2016

"
Our unique approach caused a raft of skeptcism and consternation, such as unexpected visits fromWashington, D.C. operatives to question our unorthodox approach in the primary and general elections;“friendly fire” from local Democrats on the evening news during the primary election; and grousing from consultants who had previously advised Georgia Democrats but were not involved in our efforts. Other pushback included anxious advice when we rejected targeting recommendations from experts to trim low-turnout scoring Democrats from our universes; repeated befuddled questioning about why we weren’t saving every dime for TV advertising; general strategy questions from opinion leaders in Atlanta and Washington, D.C.asking “how do you know talking to voters will work?”; and the list goes on. In the end, Abrams for Governor and the Coordinated Campaign spent a combined $42 million, outraising our opponents in both the primary and the general elections. We spent about $14 million in the general election on TV (Atlanta’s media market is one of the top ten most expensive in the USA), and we also spent millions on digital, millions on mail toDemocrats for vote-by-mail, early voting and Election Day, and over $7 million on organizing."

 

[RaikouLover]

ok so suppose this is indeed the case, trump has more negative partisanship towards him than anyone in recent memory, but perhaps you think differently. and if so the dems will win even if they run {insert either primary candidates' name here}. this line of thinking isn't convincing mainly because if the dem candidate is gonna win either way you might as well get some policies out of it beyond the bare minimum. negative partisanship has become a code word for 'since my party is more disliked rn im more likely to lose' and once you realize thats all it is you i would remind you of the historical advantage gained by incumbency, the dems cant try to nebulously skate their way thru this election cycle like 2016, hoping 6% in the polls will save them.

It isn't clear to me how Biden is gonna achieve in the face of negative partisanship since he was the primary deflection for trump during impeachment and he routinely misses his talking points in the manner of a character out of a Veep episode. If what you say about negative partisanship is true, then imo, Sanders would just have to sit there and give his standard talk about medicare education and income inequality and he could walk his way to the presidency with much decorum because the worst thing you can say about the dude is that he doesn't want to bomb ppl in other countries and he wants to make rich ppl pay more taxes.

It's almost like ppl just want to see Biden get the nom so they can watch trump tear him to shreds I rly don't get it tbh.

I’ve argued for months the conditions for this cycle are already baked in due to negative partisanship. Democrats will win the popular vote by at least 5%.

The idea that Sanders is a stronger general election candidate than Biden has no empirical basis. Biden through all his sandals and gaffes still consistently polls best head to head vs. Trump. Sanders is at best an unknown, as he has not yet been subject to Republican hit jobs. Sanders also has not forged the same relationship with the black community as Biden, which is vital to Democrats winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

it sure seems like there is a potential for a big increase in voter turnout, wonder what the strategic implications of this might be. oh wait, as I have already noted in a past post carefully calibrated to be liked by no one, the only politician who has myzozoa's unconditional endorsement this election cycle stacey abrams has strategized the whole thing out for any candidate to use: https://www.scribd.com/document/425121665/Stacey-Abrams-2020-Playbook

finally a democrat who can carry a politick like a republican

""The 16-page document warns that "any less than full investment in Georgia would amount to strategic malpractice" and urges Democrats to replicate nationally what she did in Georgia by focusing on "expanding the electorate" with people who don't often vote, rather than trying to persuade the "relatively small" number of swing voters."

the explanation of the strategy also brilliantly shows how badly the dnc/hrc campaign was managed in 2016

"
Our unique approach caused a raft of skeptcism and consternation, such as unexpected visits fromWashington, D.C. operatives to question our unorthodox approach in the primary and general elections;“friendly fire” from local Democrats on the evening news during the primary election; and grousing from consultants who had previously advised Georgia Democrats but were not involved in our efforts. Other pushback included anxious advice when we rejected targeting recommendations from experts to trim low-turnout scoring Democrats from our universes; repeated befuddled questioning about why we weren’t saving every dime for TV advertising; general strategy questions from opinion leaders in Atlanta and Washington, D.C.asking “how do you know talking to voters will work?”; and the list goes on. In the end, Abrams for Governor and the Coordinated Campaign spent a combined $42 million, outraising our opponents in both the primary and the general elections. We spent about $14 million in the general election on TV (Atlanta’s media market is one of the top ten most expensive in the USA), and we also spent millions on digital, millions on mail toDemocrats for vote-by-mail, early voting and Election Day, and over $7 million on organizing."

There is not one single Democrat that thinks the key to winning in 2020 doesn’t involve a massive turnout operation. Dems become favored at the 60% threshold, and assured victory at 65%.

The problem with the turnout argument was always only specific to Sanders strategy of activating young voters. It simply doesn’t work in practice. The biggest turnout asset Democrats have in 2020 is Donald Trump. Donald Trump won them the house in 2018 - (an 8.6% landslide popular vote margin) and the long term Generic polling points to a repeat in 2020.

 

[RaikouLover]

He is indeed a gaffe machine (which is what made him a "relatable", charismatic politician in the past) but to say there hasn't been a mental decline is insane. In 2008 he made a few headline worthy misspeaks that he could recover from right away. This year he barely manages to get a sentence out. In a head to head debate with trump, biden will simply get steamrolled

Donald Trump is an awful debater. It’s funny how everyone forgets how badly Hillary Clinton cleaned his clock all three times. Then she still lost (Hint: debates don’t change the mind of partisans. All 2020 voters will be negative partisans).

Joe isn’t a bad debater; he’s just bad next to very good debaters such as Bernie, Warren and Buttigieg. He made a complete ass of Paul Ryan in 2012. If he can survive a dozen debates with knockout Queen Warren, he can get in the ring with Trump.

What will be more interesting is seeing these two self proclaimed “alpha men” in rapid cognitive decline try to bully each other.

 

[GatoDelFuego]

Donald Trump is an awful debater. It’s funny how everyone forgets how badly Hillary Clinton cleaned his clock all three times. Then she still lost

No

 

[RaikouLover]

No

The consensus on this was settled. Hillary handily dismantled Trump in all three debates. Trump sucks at debates.

 

[politics understander]

i was going to vote for donald trump but then secretary clinton said something sassy and i changed my entire worldview and political opinions

 

[HeaLnDeaL]

i was going to vote for donald trump but then secretary clinton said something sassy and i changed my entire worldview and political opinions

was it "I wish the kids would pokemon go to the polls?"

bet it was.

 

[RaikouLover]

i was going to vote for donald trump but then secretary clinton said something sassy and i changed my entire worldview and political opinions

There are plenty of criticisms of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and other mediocre mainstream Democrats. However, Trump being some debate juggernaut is one egregious myth that needs to die.

 

[Oglemi]

While I think Bernie would have a better chance at winning in the general than Biden, I keep hearing from my fellow Bernie supporters about how Biden apparently has no chance. This is an argument that I feel can only be made in complete ignorance of how consistently unpopular Trump has been throughout his entire term. Approval averages gave him a net positive approval rating until about two weeks into his term and he's been consistently underwater since. At this point in their respective first terms, Obama's net approval rating was within a normal polling error and G.W. Bush was above water.

I wouldn't say that Trump's consistently shoddy job approval numbers are a surefire indicator that he won't be re-elected (he was unpopular when he was first running and benefited from the fact that his opponent was also unpopular), but the point is that Trump is extremely unpopular with everyone but his die-hard base of Republican supporters. Just a few examples from the midterms demonstrating how unpopular he is: A Democrat was elected to the House of Representatives from Oklahoma, Arizona elected a Democrat to the Senate for the first time since the 1980s, and Beto O'Rourke came closer to winning a statewide race in Texas than any Democrat since Ann Richards.

That said, since it's looking increasingly clear that Biden will be the nominee, he better be preparing responses to any potential Trump attacks *cough* Hunter Biden *cough* right now because he's gonna need to have a damn good response to that to improve his chances in the general.

Bernie supporters are saying that because a lot won't vote at all if Biden is the candidate, which I say only anecdotally but it covers multiple friend groups...

I can also say I would only vote Biden begrudgingly, but i will also not do any advocacy to encourage others to vote if that becomes the case

 

[Adamant Zoroark]

Bernie supporters are saying that because a lot won't vote at all if Biden is the candidate, which I say only anecdotally but it covers multiple friend groups...

I can also say I would only vote Biden begrudgingly, but i will also not do any advocacy to encourage others to vote if that becomes the case

With all due respect - and I don’t mean to say you or anybody in your friend groups are bad people - I really don’t think this is the right election to be sitting out because of not liking either candidate. It’s not just two candidates you don’t like facing off. It’s a candidate you don’t like vs. an actual threat to humanity (see: Trump’s coronavirus response, Trump’s view on climate change). I think this explains the rise in “vote blue no matter who”, but I don’t think I agree with their methods (you can’t get people to vote by saying they’re bad people for not voting)

I also have friends who will not vote if Bernie is not the nominee, and I think my experiences here also hint at something - at least a significant chunk of people who will stay home if Biden is the nominee didn’t vote in 2016 either (all of my friends who are Bernie-or-busters were 2016 nonvoters), so I’m not sure it indicates anything about how the general election will turn out.

 

[RaikouLover]

Bernie supporters are saying that because a lot won't vote at all if Biden is the candidate, which I say only anecdotally but it covers multiple friend groups...

I can also say I would only vote Biden begrudgingly, but i will also not do any advocacy to encourage others to vote if that becomes the case

This could be the United States’ last election with any semblance of legitimacy. We need as many people as possible to vote against Trump. People should heed the warnings that he actually is fascist and fascists don’t give up power easily. A close election will be deemed “fraud.”

 

[destinyunknown]

It’s a candidate you don’t like vs. an actual threat to humanity (see: Trump’s coronavirus response

The response to coronavirus by the US Government has been no different to that of any Western country. It's been the same (in some cases slightly better) as that of Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Canada etc.

Those countries include Left wing, Right wing and Centrist governments, all have been equally incompetent. What makes you think Biden's response to Coronavirus would have been any better? In fact, no presidential candidate has called for measures against the virus yet, even though the pandemic started 3 months ago. It's hard to be convinced any of them understand the threat.

 

[EB0LA]

This could be the United States’ last election with any semblance of legitimacy. We need as many people as possible to vote against Trump. People should heed the warnings that he actually is fascist and fascists don’t give up power easily. A close election will be deemed “fraud.”

Seriously, Trump will postpone the election due to the Corona Virus threat then just never leave office. OMG it's happening!

 

[Myzozoa]

dunk the us has only tested ~5000 ppl for coranavirus thats less than each much smaller country, i would argue the federal gov has really mismanaged their end of a coordinated response to outbreaks in WA and I guess NY (hard to really keep up since only 5k ppl have been tested agencies are fumbling around blind)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-snaps-michigan-auto-worker-173703659.html
it's over for biden before it even begins he's snapping at his base and the armed forced have donated more to Sanders than to Trump this time around. the writing is on the wall: Sanders is competitive w trump in a general election, Biden simply is not.

 

[MikeDawg]

Now that the primary is over, all I have to say is...

 

[MikeDawg]

Also COVID-19 is clearly just an attempt to suppress Bernie voters in Washington.

I can't believe the establishment would stoop so low!

 

[destinyunknown]

dunk the us has only tested ~5000 ppl for coranavirus thats less than each much smaller country, i would argue the federal gov has really mismanaged their end of a coordinated response to outbreaks in WA and I guess NY (hard to really keep up since only 5k ppl have been tested agencies are fumbling around blind)

I am more than aware the US Government is screwing this up badly as well, their testing have been horrendous, and it's only thanks to luck the situation isn't worse yet. Stopping flights with China early (which Europe didnt do) likely helped to make the spread slower than in Europe, that measure is no longer useful as China isn't the center of the epidemic anymore. And again, as bad as Trump is handling this, no influential politicians on either side have tried to push for measures against the virus. They're all more concerned about PR.

That being said, I don't think you're quite aware of how badly it's been handled in Europe, especially in Spain. Both the EU and national governments have been denying the epidemic was a threat, saying that ''a science-based approach suggests the illness is not spreading and there's nothing to worry about''.

I am particularly upset as in Spain, the government decided to hide information (yup) about the number of confirmed cases in the lead up to last Sunday, as they had heavily invested in some political rallies that were taking place that day. Up to that day, the government had been saying that ''the virus was not spreading in Spain and everything was under control''. Just one day later (yesterday) they released the new data, with cases tripling the previous amount, and the President admitting that the epidemic was out of control. Of course, when asked why multitudinous events haven't been cancelled, he said that ''it was only yesterday night that it got out of control''... sure.

Now everyone is panicking, all schools have been closed to prevent kids from spreading the disease... but since the government hasn't thought of a way of allowing workers to leave their jobs, lots of kids are being taken care of by their grandparents, the ones most vulnerable to the disease. It's an absolute mess. There's a few people in my family who are vulnerable to the disease so it's been hard for me to sleep at ease the last few weeks.

 

[MikeDawg]

#MichiganPrimary Early Exit Polls:

18-29: 12% (-4 from 2016)
30-44: 17% (-8)
45-64: 35% (-2)
65+: 36% (+14)

Per MSBNC, Via @Brand_Allen

The Biden revolution is truly unstoppable.

 

[termi]

u know maybe u should be concerned over the fact that ur political system is largely controlled by older people who have little stake in keeping the world habitable. gloating over the fact that the youth feel too politically disengaged to turn up and are disenfranchised (lines at polling stations at colleges have been absolutely terrible from what ive gathered) seems like a bit of a weird move. but it never really was about democracy for your kind anyway so im not particularly surprised by your spiteful attitude

anyway biden's on a roll, threatening union workers with physical violence and telling them "I'm not working for you" (so much for politicians being representatives of the people amirite)

 

[politics understander]

We're all in this so we can be smug when our candidate wins. I have switched candidates 18 times so I can always support the winner, and yes I will be supporting Donald Trump if he wins because I do not want to know what it feels like to lose. I have never lost anything in my life and i'm not about to start now.

 

[fanyfan]

The Biden revolution is truly unstoppable.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1237485136150659072

 

[MikeDawg]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1237485136150659072

The Biden revolution is truly unstoppable.

 

[MikeDawg]

Kamala Harris endorses Joe Biden. After railing on him for working w segregationist and being against bussing a la "that little girl was me" and after copying off of Sander's plan and pretending to be on board with m4a. Lol

Bernie opposed busing at the same time as Biden.

At least Biden didn't claim that most drug dealers are black.... in 2016.

Not to mention that while Bernie was celebrating prominent segregationist George Wallace, Biden was in Congress leading the fight against him.

If you're going to rail against Biden on issues of race, you should consider informing yourself first. Ever wonder why Biden/Hillary is 50 points ahead in black support, or do you just attribute that to "low information" voters?

 

[Machoke]

Bernie opposed busing at the same time as Biden.

At least Biden didn't claim that most drug dealers are black.... in 2016.

Not to mention that while Bernie was celebrating prominent segregationist George Wallace, Biden was in Congress leading the fight against him.

If you're going to rail against Biden on issues of race, you should consider informing yourself first. Ever wonder why Biden/Hillary is 50 points ahead in black support, or do you just attribute that to "low information" voters?

Why dont you tell Kamala to educate herself since she attacked Biden on his race record in her like, breakout moment, along with Booker who mentioned his terrible record with the crime bill lulz
I was making a comment on the irony of the endorsement I don't have to comment on Biden's race record here as I'm pretty sure most people here know how abysmal it is.

 

[MikeDawg]

Why dont you tell Kamala to educate herself since she attacked Biden on his race record in her like, breakout moment, along with Booker who mentioned his terrible record with the crime bill lulz
I was making a comment on the irony of the endorsement I don't have to comment on Biden's race record here as I'm pretty sure most people here know how abysmal it is.

Because she was right to criticize Biden's record? What does she have to get informed on?

Most Dems are stuck voting for the lesser of two evils right now. On issues of race, that lesser evil happens to be Biden. The results have made that abundantly clear. Funny that you're bringing up the crime bill when Bernie was an avid proponent of it.

On that note, it's too bad that the gays aren't aware of Bernie's horrific LGBT record, else they'd go for Biden as well.