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NOC Why is there a gun in my popcorn? GAME OVER SCUM WIN
- Thread starter Panic Station
- Start date
- Status
Imo high postcount + low impact is a bit of a red flag
#59 Here's hoping you get lucky, Texas.
dislike this kind of gunbearer fluff as asek pointed out blazade doing before and as i've called moody/ag out for
#62 Any policy lynching should probably be on idlers like Flyhn.
Mafia are going to have to make some calls since they'll be performing investigations for us. This means we shouldn't telegraph our potential post lynch thoughts too much.
"some calls" not even what type of calls, like, duh? i'm not really sure what he's trying to say in this post. it's wordy and metay but .. ?
#111 Like this Empoof opening. Josh breaks towny for him too so far. Nothing too objectionable yet
are u a horse race commentator or a mafia player (1 town 1 scum in initial trs)
#112 Shooting someone whenever and validating their reads is good logic except in the case of an idler
disagree super strongly with this post, but i have always disagreed with the logic of lynching someone you don't find particularly scummy just for info. i think it's a suboptimal way to play. the gunbearer should always shoot at who they find scummiest, not who they want to "validate" as town. i mean come on haruno and twin both scumread flyhn super hard, as town, if we "validated" their reads we would've misfired, and twin did. this seems like an excuse to push stronger villagers into early shots
#165 I think it would be difficult for me to read Asek objectively if it came down to it. Yeti's a close seceond because her scum NOC game is uncommon.
kek this post considering f4
#286 Not reading a lot that's alignment indicative yet, this is some good discussion but it just reads like people are comfortable talking so far. Like even Aura Guardian who has taken some leaps of faith in his scumreads in my opinion he took weird logic in Deathnote (as scum, but truly believing that it was town logic at the time and using it to bus).
Moody Cloud reads less comfortable but I guess life's hard when you don't get to be Town Watcher every NOC.
Uncle Sam is doing the Uncle Sam thing, no reason to be suspicious of it yet.
DeathbyWobbuffet please do better this game than every other NOC you've done otherwise I will shoot you when I get the gun.
Hitmonleet reads ok, definitely less awkward than Deathnote but hard to judge the learning curve here.
blazade had also recently quoted and replied to an ag post so i guess there is some draw to ag here at this point. the sam read is fine for how early in the game it was. dbw reasonable read as well. only ping here is ag interactions.
#334 I'm almost in favor of giving Haruno the gun to shut him the fuck up if he's gonna be like this all game. If he wants to be a hero I say let him, better now than later when we have less room for error.
this hits my problem with #112, scum!blazade knows haruno often has good reads but is very volatile, if he's part of the team who gave texas the gun hoping to get haruno the gun, i see this as a subtle push to get rid of one town threat early. ag brought up policy shooting haruno almost INSTANTLY when the game began so this gives us good indication it was part of the scum's plan (i think josh would be familiar with texas/haruno enough to push things that way?) to get texas --> haruno both out of the game early. dunno if townzade is playing into that or scumzade pushing it
#404 Anyway Sam I really don't like overreading too much unless the game desperately needs something to happen because I like to make points I think are interesting and relevant. And yeah, I prefer to read on evidence so if I get the gun early I'm probably not gonna do too well with it, it's all I was saying. Like I said there isn't much to go on because people haven't committed yet. I started typing something big but I have to go take care of some stuff tonight.
blazade has engaged in a couple GoodsMeta explanation posts but specifically replied to sam; he's also reiterated now he doesn't want to be shot early. he says he's fine getting shot once more goes on but idk. also the big post that could've been rip.
#444 Guys Haruno isn't gonna listen to us anyway. Frankly I was worried enough that he was scum trying to bluff that I'm happy he got shot. I agree with his reads so far too so let's see what happens
blazade has voiced the worry haruno was bluffing scum nowhere unless i somehow missed it in this ISO so this feels like a very empty reaction, also agreeing with the only conftown's reads :thinking:
im having trouble finding where haruno had actually posted reads before blazade made that post, he scumreads twin and shubaka. so... what reads were you talking about blazade? why did you think twin was scum you haven't mentioned him at all, shubaka is obvious why
#454 Agree with the DBW tone read. Josh has dropped down to null because his stronger opening hasn't continued to this point and he's good enough scum for me to start getting wary.
I want to scumread AG but I see that he's putting work in and for some reason in a 20 person game I think that's a good sign.
"i want to scumread my scumbuddy but idk if i should bus yet" but he does drop josh to a null when he didnt need to drop josh so this post doesn't put a point to town or scum imo
#455 Oh yeah Flyhn would never bus like that either
really just trying to put all direct connections here
#481 Oh also it's worth mentioning that from a mathematical perspective it's a better idea to take an 11/17 now than say a 1/4 later on. For postierity I'm curious who everyone has the highest confidence in right now. For me it's Sam
believe this is a strong tr onto sam, really kicking off blazade tunnel towning sam the rest of the game. it concerns me blazade's read on sam doesn't seem to progress or reconsider but i guess we'll see in the rest of his posts
#690 Sorry for the absence I'm busy but honestly deserve to be scumread and shot for this level of activity. There's a lot more to go on now so I'll get something drawn up after work
200 posts later we get this following by........ the same level of activity fooor the rest of the game. iirc blazade signed up low prio so if he is town its frustrating he was put into the game when he couldnt commit to it.
#784 Again, still glad we got Haruno out of the way, as I was proven right in that he shot some fucking random hero predict completely ignoring his own projection of opinion and all of our discussion so yeah. Either that was such an easy scum game it wouldn't change later or such a loose cannon I'm not taking that chance at LYLO. To answer your question Yeti I have no idea why Haruno thinks Mafia Twin and Flyhn are connected, I can't see into his mind's eye.
MoodyCloud is definitely exhibiting unusual and scummy patterns for him. Even after being attacked over the past few days he isn't being defensive about it which is a red flag for me.
Yeti is town af right now I have no idea why people are scumreading this but it reads like some kind of town overthinking preflip connections into a misunderstanding.
Flyhn still behaving towny and I don't buy into the theory that scum are trying to do a long con prop up to get him in the last slot. This is why it pays to commit to opinions while the gunbearer watches.
DBW fell off the map again and I'm not surprised but the only difference I've seen between his town and scum idle is his early game activity so I'm inclined to let it slide.
UncleSam and DLE read as if they are interested and solving the game in spite of activity, while Twin reads less so, but I would be careful about letting any of them survive to the end.
Concur with the consensus townread on Hitmonleet because I saw his awkward af scumgame in Deathnote, I'd expect more of that here.
Most everyone else hasn't really projected any tells just yet (Josh, AG, winter delta, Fort Colorcaste) , or are just more difficult for me to read effectively (Former Hope, Asek, Jalmont)
I think scum this game will try to create 50-50s and implications that don't exist because that's the only way to win this game as one of them. I've seen some of that behavior already but I can't recall the specific moments and players without going back.
any1 else find it interesting he has half the scumteam in that first group of 4 and if he is scum 3 town in the second one?
blazade does the annoying thing again where he pushes for experienced players to be shot early, he has sam/dle/twin grouped wary about letting them get to the end... but wasn't sam his strongest tr?
i also dislike how he didnt even try to answer my question to him, like ns we don't know why HARUNO thought it but i wanted blazade to explore what might have led haruno to the conclusion.. amazing how wrong haruno was but i have felt that flyhn as an early consensus townread could have a lot of interesting ties to him, blazade doesn't even try.
his reads are otherwise pretty good here, the only one he gets wrong is moody, sam isn't really a READ just a statement
#813 Man I even vouched for town DBW too.
this post exists to make blazade look better than he was, i'm p sure i've c/pd the only mentions of dbw by blazade and only the last one really gets definitive about him and it's stuck in with the rest of his reads. like yeah blazade read him right but i think he's sort of overstating any defense for dbw in another filler reaction post
#814 I want to see twin or asek get shot today. I agree with josh on the is moody that bad WIFOM but my read is more om tje reactions than the active content so I think it hold water in spite of those considerations
this post comes str8 outta nowhere considering his above reads post where twin and asek were both nulls. again i'll dust off my megaphone and broadcast my disdain for claims like this with no reasons. cause now it's hard to tell why blazade said this and if scum, he can tell us whatever makes him look best rather than something quotable from the moment. scumread on moody is consistent at least.
#828 I disagree. He's [Moody?] like a reverse town and gets way more defensive when he's under pressure if he has nothing to hide. I look at that ISO and it doesn't give me the same reaction it does you.
In any case the only REAL question to ask is whether someone is above or below the median on whether you'd keep them to the end. Anyone below the line's getting shot eventually it's just a matter of when and IMO the gunbearer should not be predictable in that regard.
afaict from context this is about moody. consistent scumread, response to josh. not sure i agree the gunbearer shouldn't be predictable, as we have seen the yolo big plays have all been onto town players and those gunbearers get removed prematurely without really posting good reads or what they think if their shot is indeed town. but i get what he's saying.
#842 Vote Moody
chooses moody as his vote in line with his posts, just curious what causes the shift from 814's twin/asek to moody. or rather, the more curious aspect: why twin/asek in 814 and NOT moody?
#863 No way that Sam is a good shot looking at this lol.
Honestly Jalmont you are probably best off RNGing the shot, there are enough mafia left that it's probably corrupting public opinion in subtle ways
first hint of the wagonomics i believe but i wish blazade elaborated on what "this" is he's looking at. and we get the rng suggestion, i mean there are a lot of mafia but rng? hyperbole or not this is an ehh suggestion, blazade has been softing ehh shot notions on and off
#874 Consensus reads are bad. Consensus reads are even worse when what is it, 6 out of the 14 people remaining are mafia who don't have to commit to jack shit?
Full RNG is hyperbole but when I am the gunbearer (and I expect this to happen at some point, just do it before LYLO so we don't lose) I intend on shooting randomly within a pool of the bottom 25% of the playerlist. In this game it doesn't matter when someone is voted off the island, but IF they are, since one town clears. People that are suspicious enough will get shot eventually.
That aside, don't take my word on the Sam read, look at the wagonomics. If Sam gave up or his team did and he's getting bused more power too him but that's not the sense I'm getting here.
townzade gets boozled by sam indeed being the designated bus; scumzade trying to separate himself from his bussing teammates and defend sam.
#919 Anyway the most important thinngs we can glean are that some scum are probably idling (weak I know) and that winter delta's statement says a lot about Yeti. What I would do if I wasn't at work is look for where people tried to draw a pre flip implication on Sam and Yeti and draw the opposite conclusion.
if ag was doing what i think he was trying to get a false equivalence between me and sam so when sam got shot i would be misshot next it's possible blazade was nudging that into the world here as well
#944 twin had a good gut reaction to delta that gives me pause in scumreading him.
I'd vote Asek or josh at this point.
what happened to moody? its frustrating to be going through these posts and seeing no progression of WHY from blazade's votes and reads. he last said something about twin a couple shots ago. why did josh show up on the shot list and why is asek still on it? lack of reasoning = shady.
#1233 The reason I asked C2 who people believe in is that Monty Hall kind of works in reverse here in a sense. As we get closer and closer to a disastrous endgame, a random person has a lower likelihood to be town, but at 12/18 those are the best odds you can get in a game like this and in my opinion it'll be informative of some of the more robust post flip relationships you can draw. Unfortunately most of the game kind of just shipped Flyhn but Josh shipped Hitmonleet.
Going back and reading pre winter delta consensus I am inclined to believe that the majority narrative that w-d was getting at was that Sam Scum -> Yeti Scum but I'm inclined to believe the other implication now, so I'm pretty convinced Yeti is town in any scenario.
Biggest gut towns I had at the beginning were Sam and DLE and that really hasn't changed tbh. No one else has given me a large amount of confidence to not shoot them so far but twin has picked up his activity and content game.
ill give blazade towncred for seeing through the scum narrative. w-d and ag both tried to set this up. considering sam's team bussed him i think it was a Good Attempt to get me linked to him but ultimately didn't hold water, you can tell where ag starts to give it up because he doesn't actually want me shot. 1 wrong 1 right town read, fair.
#1234/6/7 Oh wait was pancake a sub for Josh? Josh scum made a lot of sense as a gut call here. I expect a lot of buddying from him and maybe 30% busing with his scumreads so I'm gonna look back at the iso
Quickly glancing at Josh's ISO he changes his tune on moody pretty quickly and definitively. Tough to say whether he's abandoning a bus or switching from trying to lynch to trying to capitalize off a town flip on a sure shot. Thoughts?
I'm like 60-40 inclined to think it's the latter but my shots in order are probably AG - Asek - Fomer Hope. I wouldn't be opposed to shooting Hitmonleet either but I'm also about 75-25 inclined to think that was buddying. All the same Hitmonleet never lives to the end now in my mind so it's not a matter of IF, but when we decide to flip him.
there's a lot of mentions of josh in blazade's posts/interactions with him while some people are almost absent. reads on jalmont and fort are virtually nonexistent, i know jalmont got shot fairly early but like. still. no reason why ag and fh are now in his top 3 shots, and his reads on leet had been towny before. leet got somewhat consensused and blazade suggests he should never live to the end, like he did with sam/dle/twin. i'm just not a fan of his implications certain players need to be shot before f6 or whatever end number he has in mind. especially since 3 of them have been town and 1 busmaster sam.
#1256 Man I literally asked you all about the josh moody shit before any of these busywork ISOs came up, fucking please.
People need to quit saying I'm not doing anything if they're not gonna respond to any of the points I do make.
feels like genuine annoyance but let's be real, what has blazade been driving or pushing in any of these posts? i appreciate his contributions when he makes them and discussing the josh/moody connection but there are a LOT of opportunities he could say more than "might as well rng/X shouldnt live until the end (why?)" and doesn't; find this post towny
#1259 King is fine shot, I'm still pretty sure moody isn't though.
When Josh goes from scum to town on him as others scum read him, do you think that he was confident he could prevent a shot on moody? If so, what makes you think that? I would usually say that a scumbuddy in this setup would commit to the bus there.
interested to know why king is a fine shot. the only reason for moody moving out of being a good shot seems to be the sudden shift by josh. interested to see where blazade's read on moody and defense of him goes.
#1306 Again I don't assume I'll survive to the end of this game so I expect to be in the driver's seat at some point.
I'm very curious why US says iDLE is scum though, I was under the impression that that was his town meta. Pinging people and trying to control discussion with questions tends to be his scum meta.
moody's most recent responses are making me question my intuition on him as well, like even if Josh wasn't trying to get "town cred" moody still wouldn't be acting like this. Twin's point on pancake was also a fresh perspective because I didn't look at pancake too closely, so I feel a little more comfortable with a moody shot today.
I still think AG is a solid shot, mostly because it reads like he's just trying to contribute for the sake of contributing. I get a slightly uninformed vibe from the tone of some of his statements but I know he plays a confident scumgame and I'm just not reading an active town agenda in what I'm seeing.
alright so we are instantly back to some scumreading onto moody. lol. blazade has flip flopped on this guy a lot. now we get some reason for why ag is a good shot. i dont think ags team was bussing him very much so if blazade is a teammate, ag is a fairly safe scumbuddy to suggest without fear of him actually being shot. blazade does seem to be advancing his read on moody as a result of game progression so town-minded there.
#1353 Moody taking a definite stance on WIFOM is more in line with what I expect from him.
At 3 Mafia left i'm becoming more confident in public opinion and want to take stock of everyone's strongest townread again. Shoukd be useful later on.
and now we are back to towny moody. the 3 mafia are ag, sam and 1 of asek/blazade; i get that the numbers now favor town and all but for how mathy and rngy blazade has been the sudden interest in strong trs, possibly to find a consensus, could be mafia looking to see where they sit. nobody even answers his question on the same page bc moody and fh get into a spat.
#1367 Alright this is enough bickering lol.
I'm usually inclined to believe fights like this are TvT but really that's only true if one of the two parties isn't already contentious and Moody clearly is. I can see this fight from these personalities going down any way except if they're both scum but I'm like 50-30-20 TvT-FH scum-Moody scum here
I want to shoot outside of this, like AG or Asek or even the likes of Twin/Sam to start playing around the long game and taking care of people who are more confident in risky bus plays.
the first sentence gets a lot of towncred because scum would be fine with TvT tearing each other apart
the second makes little sense to me, blazade you were 50% TvT 30% fh scum 20% moody? after saying moody is the contentious one? it seems like you imply moody as scum is the reason this wouldnt be tvt yet have scumoody as the least likely. you had last read moody towny so this makes sense but i'd think you wouldn't point to moody as the factor that makes the fight possibly not tvt then
and now we get back to blazade wanting to shoot experienced players for meta reasons, not even scumread reasons because as far as we know from his posts he still townreads sam. i dislike this idea of wanting to shoot one of your townreads to play the 'long game' - there might not need to BE a long game if you shoot your scumreads instead of getting tricksy.
#1383 Think about motivations here. Scum don't want to get people who will shoot them shot at this numbers disadvantage. They want to get other people shot and blame it on someone else, or create a preflip causality that gets 2 town shot no matter what happens.
I agree with twin in that I think there's a good case for Hitmonleet here
i agree with blazade's point but i think he falls on his own sword - he hasn't pushed anything and i don't think he's really been in danger of being shot because fsr people just glossed over him all game. he has NEVER made a case for someone he's ok being shot, being shot. so when dbw got shot he just goes "well i said so!" and yes it's true he never pushed dbw but he never pushed not-dbw, either. he also never does the preflip thing which is in favor of him being town, so this post is kind of 50/50. not sure what blazade thinks makes the leet case good because surprise, he never explains it.
#1392 Yeah moody's been giving me really mixed signals this game. I never have him surviving to the end though so my read is more of a prediction to try and get a bead on other players at this point.
And I'm putting in work, Yeti. I may be more laid back than usual but this is far from jack shit.
Leet I was under the impression former and moody declared they'd shoot each other so forgive me if I didn't bundle you in that logic.
sounds like another flip flop on moody. i'm not even sure what the second sentence means.. a lot of the stuff blazade has said about moody is pretty shallow or weak in force so i am not sure how him flipping from town to scum read is getting a bead on other players. if blazade was like SHOOT MOODY HERE'S WHY and got like ag and sam instantly agreeing then i would credit him with a good job catching scum bandwagoning onto it but he just never does anything significant enough to impact others. like sure you're putting in some work but it's not effecting anyone.
#1400 Yo honestly I forgot about that good post a while back. I'm always gonna be wary of you Asek, because your scumgame is actually very good (as seen in paranoia, neighborhood, etc) so without strong evidence you are town I'm gonna be suspicious. Those reads back there do constitute strong evidence though.
blazade replies to asek asking why he and walrein scumread asek. it's a fair question because the reason for asek being a good shot to blazade hasn't been said in a long time; i don't consider "this player could be dangerous" an actual reason. blazade does bring up a good point about strong evidence needed for asek; he's a good player from what i've seen and should be able to post in such a fashion that warrants townreading him if he's town. the fact that nobody really has dug up reasons for asek being hard townread like sam did is a big point towards scum asek. i'm going to iso asek tomorrow accordingly.
#1480 People keep referencing his DBZ game but neut tells are town tells in NOC.
this post has been called out but this is an iso so. just disagree. dont think this is scum indicative though to have said.
#1503 RIP Jalmont thank you for your service.
Anyway yeah i called this as buddying but I was never sure enough to want Leet to survive to the end. Not much has changed in my mind, so shoot your conscience, Hitmonleet
asek is right that this first sentence is $#!% the second sentence caught me wary because "never sure?" blazade earlier said leet never endgames in his opinion and his most recent opinion on leet was twin makes a good case for him as a shot. this post in general is just bad and waffly and is doing:
They want to get other people shot and blame it on someone else
this exactly.
#1532 Wow that is super surreal to read coming from you.
Anyway I'm getting towny behavior from Moody again but at this point it's always difficult to tell whether someone is playing to the things I tell them makes them seem scummy (since I've been talking about it for so long)
Evidence is kind of mixed up but I maintain Josh had little reason ti flip on a scum there. I just remembered the reason for the flip on opinion was pretty sketch though coming from a scum.
I should probably stop fretting over this and move on to more likely targets tbh, it's frustrating.
I'll answer your questions when I get home in an hour or 2 hitmonleet
good emotional reaction to moody imo but now we get ANOTHER flip on moody. walrein what do you make of this? moody was a pretty erratic poster and as i caught when i iso'd him had a lot of inconsistencies within his own posts. but this could be blazade hedging his bet when moody flips town he can say "nah i town read him told you so something about josh here" like he did leet.
#1576 Calm your nips, Moody, I've been busy with work, RPGLB practice, and TTYD with the time I've got left.
I've answered all those questions recently too and my opinions haven't changed cause of hitmonleet's flip. I'll get around to it
the very next post is leet somewhat impulsively shooting twin imo so blazade never has a chance to answer leet's questions. this feels stally but i dont think it was intentional bc leet shot prematurely.
#1584 Man everyone wants to be a fucking hero and shoot random people that are widely townread so they can be the one that gets them. Must be a psychological thing.
alarm sirens should be going off that something doesnt quite add up. twin is one of the people blazade said should be shot before endgame just to resolve him before risky plays. there is nothing about twin since that post except regarding the case on leet so we can't provide any evidence to say blazade has changed his mind, twin shouldn't be shot, or he's even townreading twin. let me paste it again:
They want to get other people shot and blame it on someone else
hmmm. i was starting to feel townier on blazade up until 1503 and the following posts. this 1500s series has looked really bad for blazade imo, he keeps dropping useless gunbearer reaction lines that take no credit for the shots when some of the last things he's said about the shot were "they could be a good one" in essence.
#1600 Asek was too, so was Yeti, so was i to a certain extent, Josh wanted flyhn and hitmonleet up though so it's not really too big a litmus test imo.
responds to fh asking who wanted flyhn alive to the end making them townier. it feels sort of like what scum ag does being helpful answering questions and he kind of undermines fh implying anyone who wanted flyhn is towny by bringing up josh. to be fair i also question townreading the people who did support flyhn. so not gonna call this post scummy.
#1603 Idk people have been arguing themselves in circles for the better part of a week now, I attribute most of the flyhn paranoia to an overreaction to people not wanting to trust someone other people are throwing in with.
Hell, even Twin would have made me scared in LYLO, I admit that, however poor a shot it was especially at this point.
but you said.......... w/e
#1616 Vote Aura Guardian
He's been phoning it in for a while now imo.
Endgame Order
Me!
UncleSam - Only player with hard wagonomics supporting him, I still think that push wasn't a bus
Yeti - Some good pushes at the right time, overall towny behvaior, and some preflip connections and attacks from scum
Walrein - This was town DLE and walrein acts busy and had some good reads but the further drop in activity is starting to decay the read slightly
Asek - Some good reads and good activity but he tends to have great tone as scum and buddying/busing is encouraged here. If some of the bottom 3 turn up town I start to suspect him if it's like any 3 people and me left.
Former Hope -I haven't been reading this too closely or getting anything other than contentious bickering from his interactions. Maybe SvS bus with moody, maybe just Town former getting in fights like he always does. I never read this guy right so idk. I don't have a reason to believe though
MoodyCloud - too much bad to keep him around, especially after these last couple flips confirm no illuminati
Aura Guardian
well now we get some concrete reads besides "my view is flipping" and some reasons. at last. the post we've been waiting for.
voting ag here as a teammate is a needlessly risky play bc flyhn is playing deadline chicken and it would've been very easy for blazade to push moody again, or possibly work off sam and push walrein. that said the towncred is easy too. having sam as top town bc of the bus when a lot of his reason for shifting off moody related to a bus isnt great. interesting he has 1 scum at the top and 1 at the bottom of his order. overall town for this post.
#1652 Ey I'm glad I'm not crazy because I've been on AG for a while now.
One thing I noticed a lot is that I and others would sometimes bring up AG, but it usually got ignored in the wake of the following discussion. I'll do this when i get home but an inportant thing we should be looking for is people who tried to distract public opinion by sidestepping to other targets like FH-moody or Hitmonleet
...does this post give anyone else towncred vibes? after distancing himself from failed flips before that he did have ties to, now he peacocks a bit about ag.
did anyone ever look into who distracted from ag? i had been pushing him for quite a while but i'm not sure he had enough teammates left to really distract away from him esp after jalmont; i'm not sure how conclusive this avenue will be.
#1684/6 I can answer that.
Scum only need to say things that make sense at the time. They'll sometimes push, and sometimes not, on their buddies, but they'll try and latch onto things they find noticeable no matter what.
There's too much WIFOM in here lol
And to clarify, discerning other people's motivations especially when there have been flips makes for great scumhunting but it sucks when you use it on yourself for reasons that should be clear. So stop doing it.
answers fh. this sort of continues with how blazade will be helpful and answer questions but by answering this question, he's made a post, looked useful, but actually done nothing to aggress finding scum.
as for the second post, why haven't you been doing it more.
#1699 I'd be a lot more paranoid as scum in this game, if you want my self aware assessment, anyone that's seen me play on an informed faction in an OC should see that.
yeah and we also think you'd be a lot more helpful as town. but w/e
#1708 Yes he [Moody] alwasy plays like this but in the beginning he was very much not like this. This is why I'm confused. He's either town starting to pay attention or scum learning from me explicitly pointing out his towntells
answering walrein. blazade has a LOT of connections with moody, probably more than with anyone else esp since moody way outlived josh. i find it odd he doesn't have that many with other players, there's a lot missing aimed at fh, me, walrein for instance. some, he has some, but.. yknow. this is further setup for a moody flip either way that doesnt reflect badly on him.
#1810 Hey what's up.
I was wrong about Sam so sorry about that but evidence isn't proof and intuition isn't perfect.
Top town still Yeti/Walrein.
Isn't there only one scum left?
Shot today is Asek/moody imo.
Phone posting from work so you guys are gonna have to give me a few hours
at least hes up front about misreading sam. walrein promptly asks where fh is from this which was exactly my thought when reading it.
which he never does unless the post didnt show up in the iso.
#1844/5 I have been waiting to be GB all game and reading the thread.
I'm surprised walrein wouldn't want me on the trigger for him since I had faith in him all game
I called it as TvT too like 30 pages ago
to fh re: fh/moody. again theres a lot of like, retrospective "i called it!" by blazade, the problem is, it's cool you got it right, congrats, but you never DID ANYTHING with that before whoever got misfired on. inactive or not blazade has let a whole lot of stuff just kinda happen that he then says "i was right" which is easy for a scum to say btw. though he seems fairly confident of getting the gun like he would as town.
my eyes are starting to hurt from staring at the screen and the rest of these posts are super recent so im gonna stop here. i havent cped every post but most of them.
from this there are a couple that make me give a big town read to blazade (1616) but more that give me huge pause and a big scum read to him (the 1500s, the instant towncred in 1652).
my conclusions from this are that he has said a lot of good-sounding stuff but not done anything with that when it was still relevant. he has been right on things but that doesn't matter much once the misshot is made. he even calls this out as scummy behavior yet consistently will comment on the shot and whether he had 'called it' that X was town for X reason or not.
when has blazade pushed a read or built a case for anyone?
looking at these posts, never, which bothers me immensely. town blazade is normally a big presence in a noc, once i am paranoid of because if he's scum he can sway people and provide some solid sounding logic. i have seen none of that here. he just straight hasn't done anything and after pointing out it's scum who DO want to push things and do things, i feel like he's taken the opposite approach to that to try and inflate himself into towny play.
i need to iso asek which im not going to do tonight before i can compare them against each other and say what % i think each has of being scum in relation to each other.
in a vacuum, i think blazade lacks a lot of condemning evidence to make him town or scum but has more suspicious threads in his posts that push me to say scum.
also in a vacuum, as long as walrein shoots 1 of them and if the game doesn't end, that one shoots the other, the game is won. though this is obviously not the perspective of the other remaining non-rein town. as much as i dislike blazade's active lurking i think it's a benefit to this endgame that both other players have been following along the game, so i feel pretty confident either would think their shot through. if the game just doesn't straight end with walrein's shot which jesus christ i hope it does. now i remember why i take noc hiatuses im not willing to lose to inactive cucks but its effort af to wallpost and dig through everything.
dislike this kind of gunbearer fluff as asek pointed out blazade doing before and as i've called moody/ag out for
#62 Any policy lynching should probably be on idlers like Flyhn.
Mafia are going to have to make some calls since they'll be performing investigations for us. This means we shouldn't telegraph our potential post lynch thoughts too much.
"some calls" not even what type of calls, like, duh? i'm not really sure what he's trying to say in this post. it's wordy and metay but .. ?
#111 Like this Empoof opening. Josh breaks towny for him too so far. Nothing too objectionable yet
are u a horse race commentator or a mafia player (1 town 1 scum in initial trs)
#112 Shooting someone whenever and validating their reads is good logic except in the case of an idler
disagree super strongly with this post, but i have always disagreed with the logic of lynching someone you don't find particularly scummy just for info. i think it's a suboptimal way to play. the gunbearer should always shoot at who they find scummiest, not who they want to "validate" as town. i mean come on haruno and twin both scumread flyhn super hard, as town, if we "validated" their reads we would've misfired, and twin did. this seems like an excuse to push stronger villagers into early shots
#165 I think it would be difficult for me to read Asek objectively if it came down to it. Yeti's a close seceond because her scum NOC game is uncommon.
kek this post considering f4
#286 Not reading a lot that's alignment indicative yet, this is some good discussion but it just reads like people are comfortable talking so far. Like even Aura Guardian who has taken some leaps of faith in his scumreads in my opinion he took weird logic in Deathnote (as scum, but truly believing that it was town logic at the time and using it to bus).
Moody Cloud reads less comfortable but I guess life's hard when you don't get to be Town Watcher every NOC.
Uncle Sam is doing the Uncle Sam thing, no reason to be suspicious of it yet.
DeathbyWobbuffet please do better this game than every other NOC you've done otherwise I will shoot you when I get the gun.
Hitmonleet reads ok, definitely less awkward than Deathnote but hard to judge the learning curve here.
blazade had also recently quoted and replied to an ag post so i guess there is some draw to ag here at this point. the sam read is fine for how early in the game it was. dbw reasonable read as well. only ping here is ag interactions.
#334 I'm almost in favor of giving Haruno the gun to shut him the fuck up if he's gonna be like this all game. If he wants to be a hero I say let him, better now than later when we have less room for error.
this hits my problem with #112, scum!blazade knows haruno often has good reads but is very volatile, if he's part of the team who gave texas the gun hoping to get haruno the gun, i see this as a subtle push to get rid of one town threat early. ag brought up policy shooting haruno almost INSTANTLY when the game began so this gives us good indication it was part of the scum's plan (i think josh would be familiar with texas/haruno enough to push things that way?) to get texas --> haruno both out of the game early. dunno if townzade is playing into that or scumzade pushing it
#404 Anyway Sam I really don't like overreading too much unless the game desperately needs something to happen because I like to make points I think are interesting and relevant. And yeah, I prefer to read on evidence so if I get the gun early I'm probably not gonna do too well with it, it's all I was saying. Like I said there isn't much to go on because people haven't committed yet. I started typing something big but I have to go take care of some stuff tonight.
blazade has engaged in a couple GoodsMeta explanation posts but specifically replied to sam; he's also reiterated now he doesn't want to be shot early. he says he's fine getting shot once more goes on but idk. also the big post that could've been rip.
#444 Guys Haruno isn't gonna listen to us anyway. Frankly I was worried enough that he was scum trying to bluff that I'm happy he got shot. I agree with his reads so far too so let's see what happens
blazade has voiced the worry haruno was bluffing scum nowhere unless i somehow missed it in this ISO so this feels like a very empty reaction, also agreeing with the only conftown's reads :thinking:
im having trouble finding where haruno had actually posted reads before blazade made that post, he scumreads twin and shubaka. so... what reads were you talking about blazade? why did you think twin was scum you haven't mentioned him at all, shubaka is obvious why
#454 Agree with the DBW tone read. Josh has dropped down to null because his stronger opening hasn't continued to this point and he's good enough scum for me to start getting wary.
I want to scumread AG but I see that he's putting work in and for some reason in a 20 person game I think that's a good sign.
"i want to scumread my scumbuddy but idk if i should bus yet" but he does drop josh to a null when he didnt need to drop josh so this post doesn't put a point to town or scum imo
#455 Oh yeah Flyhn would never bus like that either
really just trying to put all direct connections here
#481 Oh also it's worth mentioning that from a mathematical perspective it's a better idea to take an 11/17 now than say a 1/4 later on. For postierity I'm curious who everyone has the highest confidence in right now. For me it's Sam
believe this is a strong tr onto sam, really kicking off blazade tunnel towning sam the rest of the game. it concerns me blazade's read on sam doesn't seem to progress or reconsider but i guess we'll see in the rest of his posts
#690 Sorry for the absence I'm busy but honestly deserve to be scumread and shot for this level of activity. There's a lot more to go on now so I'll get something drawn up after work
200 posts later we get this following by........ the same level of activity fooor the rest of the game. iirc blazade signed up low prio so if he is town its frustrating he was put into the game when he couldnt commit to it.
#784 Again, still glad we got Haruno out of the way, as I was proven right in that he shot some fucking random hero predict completely ignoring his own projection of opinion and all of our discussion so yeah. Either that was such an easy scum game it wouldn't change later or such a loose cannon I'm not taking that chance at LYLO. To answer your question Yeti I have no idea why Haruno thinks Mafia Twin and Flyhn are connected, I can't see into his mind's eye.
MoodyCloud is definitely exhibiting unusual and scummy patterns for him. Even after being attacked over the past few days he isn't being defensive about it which is a red flag for me.
Yeti is town af right now I have no idea why people are scumreading this but it reads like some kind of town overthinking preflip connections into a misunderstanding.
Flyhn still behaving towny and I don't buy into the theory that scum are trying to do a long con prop up to get him in the last slot. This is why it pays to commit to opinions while the gunbearer watches.
DBW fell off the map again and I'm not surprised but the only difference I've seen between his town and scum idle is his early game activity so I'm inclined to let it slide.
UncleSam and DLE read as if they are interested and solving the game in spite of activity, while Twin reads less so, but I would be careful about letting any of them survive to the end.
Concur with the consensus townread on Hitmonleet because I saw his awkward af scumgame in Deathnote, I'd expect more of that here.
Most everyone else hasn't really projected any tells just yet (Josh, AG, winter delta, Fort Colorcaste) , or are just more difficult for me to read effectively (Former Hope, Asek, Jalmont)
I think scum this game will try to create 50-50s and implications that don't exist because that's the only way to win this game as one of them. I've seen some of that behavior already but I can't recall the specific moments and players without going back.
any1 else find it interesting he has half the scumteam in that first group of 4 and if he is scum 3 town in the second one?
blazade does the annoying thing again where he pushes for experienced players to be shot early, he has sam/dle/twin grouped wary about letting them get to the end... but wasn't sam his strongest tr?
i also dislike how he didnt even try to answer my question to him, like ns we don't know why HARUNO thought it but i wanted blazade to explore what might have led haruno to the conclusion.. amazing how wrong haruno was but i have felt that flyhn as an early consensus townread could have a lot of interesting ties to him, blazade doesn't even try.
his reads are otherwise pretty good here, the only one he gets wrong is moody, sam isn't really a READ just a statement
#813 Man I even vouched for town DBW too.
this post exists to make blazade look better than he was, i'm p sure i've c/pd the only mentions of dbw by blazade and only the last one really gets definitive about him and it's stuck in with the rest of his reads. like yeah blazade read him right but i think he's sort of overstating any defense for dbw in another filler reaction post
#814 I want to see twin or asek get shot today. I agree with josh on the is moody that bad WIFOM but my read is more om tje reactions than the active content so I think it hold water in spite of those considerations
this post comes str8 outta nowhere considering his above reads post where twin and asek were both nulls. again i'll dust off my megaphone and broadcast my disdain for claims like this with no reasons. cause now it's hard to tell why blazade said this and if scum, he can tell us whatever makes him look best rather than something quotable from the moment. scumread on moody is consistent at least.
#828 I disagree. He's [Moody?] like a reverse town and gets way more defensive when he's under pressure if he has nothing to hide. I look at that ISO and it doesn't give me the same reaction it does you.
In any case the only REAL question to ask is whether someone is above or below the median on whether you'd keep them to the end. Anyone below the line's getting shot eventually it's just a matter of when and IMO the gunbearer should not be predictable in that regard.
afaict from context this is about moody. consistent scumread, response to josh. not sure i agree the gunbearer shouldn't be predictable, as we have seen the yolo big plays have all been onto town players and those gunbearers get removed prematurely without really posting good reads or what they think if their shot is indeed town. but i get what he's saying.
#842 Vote Moody
chooses moody as his vote in line with his posts, just curious what causes the shift from 814's twin/asek to moody. or rather, the more curious aspect: why twin/asek in 814 and NOT moody?
#863 No way that Sam is a good shot looking at this lol.
Honestly Jalmont you are probably best off RNGing the shot, there are enough mafia left that it's probably corrupting public opinion in subtle ways
first hint of the wagonomics i believe but i wish blazade elaborated on what "this" is he's looking at. and we get the rng suggestion, i mean there are a lot of mafia but rng? hyperbole or not this is an ehh suggestion, blazade has been softing ehh shot notions on and off
#874 Consensus reads are bad. Consensus reads are even worse when what is it, 6 out of the 14 people remaining are mafia who don't have to commit to jack shit?
Full RNG is hyperbole but when I am the gunbearer (and I expect this to happen at some point, just do it before LYLO so we don't lose) I intend on shooting randomly within a pool of the bottom 25% of the playerlist. In this game it doesn't matter when someone is voted off the island, but IF they are, since one town clears. People that are suspicious enough will get shot eventually.
That aside, don't take my word on the Sam read, look at the wagonomics. If Sam gave up or his team did and he's getting bused more power too him but that's not the sense I'm getting here.
townzade gets boozled by sam indeed being the designated bus; scumzade trying to separate himself from his bussing teammates and defend sam.
#919 Anyway the most important thinngs we can glean are that some scum are probably idling (weak I know) and that winter delta's statement says a lot about Yeti. What I would do if I wasn't at work is look for where people tried to draw a pre flip implication on Sam and Yeti and draw the opposite conclusion.
if ag was doing what i think he was trying to get a false equivalence between me and sam so when sam got shot i would be misshot next it's possible blazade was nudging that into the world here as well
#944 twin had a good gut reaction to delta that gives me pause in scumreading him.
I'd vote Asek or josh at this point.
what happened to moody? its frustrating to be going through these posts and seeing no progression of WHY from blazade's votes and reads. he last said something about twin a couple shots ago. why did josh show up on the shot list and why is asek still on it? lack of reasoning = shady.
#1233 The reason I asked C2 who people believe in is that Monty Hall kind of works in reverse here in a sense. As we get closer and closer to a disastrous endgame, a random person has a lower likelihood to be town, but at 12/18 those are the best odds you can get in a game like this and in my opinion it'll be informative of some of the more robust post flip relationships you can draw. Unfortunately most of the game kind of just shipped Flyhn but Josh shipped Hitmonleet.
Going back and reading pre winter delta consensus I am inclined to believe that the majority narrative that w-d was getting at was that Sam Scum -> Yeti Scum but I'm inclined to believe the other implication now, so I'm pretty convinced Yeti is town in any scenario.
Biggest gut towns I had at the beginning were Sam and DLE and that really hasn't changed tbh. No one else has given me a large amount of confidence to not shoot them so far but twin has picked up his activity and content game.
ill give blazade towncred for seeing through the scum narrative. w-d and ag both tried to set this up. considering sam's team bussed him i think it was a Good Attempt to get me linked to him but ultimately didn't hold water, you can tell where ag starts to give it up because he doesn't actually want me shot. 1 wrong 1 right town read, fair.
#1234/6/7 Oh wait was pancake a sub for Josh? Josh scum made a lot of sense as a gut call here. I expect a lot of buddying from him and maybe 30% busing with his scumreads so I'm gonna look back at the iso
Quickly glancing at Josh's ISO he changes his tune on moody pretty quickly and definitively. Tough to say whether he's abandoning a bus or switching from trying to lynch to trying to capitalize off a town flip on a sure shot. Thoughts?
I'm like 60-40 inclined to think it's the latter but my shots in order are probably AG - Asek - Fomer Hope. I wouldn't be opposed to shooting Hitmonleet either but I'm also about 75-25 inclined to think that was buddying. All the same Hitmonleet never lives to the end now in my mind so it's not a matter of IF, but when we decide to flip him.
there's a lot of mentions of josh in blazade's posts/interactions with him while some people are almost absent. reads on jalmont and fort are virtually nonexistent, i know jalmont got shot fairly early but like. still. no reason why ag and fh are now in his top 3 shots, and his reads on leet had been towny before. leet got somewhat consensused and blazade suggests he should never live to the end, like he did with sam/dle/twin. i'm just not a fan of his implications certain players need to be shot before f6 or whatever end number he has in mind. especially since 3 of them have been town and 1 busmaster sam.
#1256 Man I literally asked you all about the josh moody shit before any of these busywork ISOs came up, fucking please.
People need to quit saying I'm not doing anything if they're not gonna respond to any of the points I do make.
feels like genuine annoyance but let's be real, what has blazade been driving or pushing in any of these posts? i appreciate his contributions when he makes them and discussing the josh/moody connection but there are a LOT of opportunities he could say more than "might as well rng/X shouldnt live until the end (why?)" and doesn't; find this post towny
#1259 King is fine shot, I'm still pretty sure moody isn't though.
When Josh goes from scum to town on him as others scum read him, do you think that he was confident he could prevent a shot on moody? If so, what makes you think that? I would usually say that a scumbuddy in this setup would commit to the bus there.
interested to know why king is a fine shot. the only reason for moody moving out of being a good shot seems to be the sudden shift by josh. interested to see where blazade's read on moody and defense of him goes.
#1306 Again I don't assume I'll survive to the end of this game so I expect to be in the driver's seat at some point.
I'm very curious why US says iDLE is scum though, I was under the impression that that was his town meta. Pinging people and trying to control discussion with questions tends to be his scum meta.
moody's most recent responses are making me question my intuition on him as well, like even if Josh wasn't trying to get "town cred" moody still wouldn't be acting like this. Twin's point on pancake was also a fresh perspective because I didn't look at pancake too closely, so I feel a little more comfortable with a moody shot today.
I still think AG is a solid shot, mostly because it reads like he's just trying to contribute for the sake of contributing. I get a slightly uninformed vibe from the tone of some of his statements but I know he plays a confident scumgame and I'm just not reading an active town agenda in what I'm seeing.
alright so we are instantly back to some scumreading onto moody. lol. blazade has flip flopped on this guy a lot. now we get some reason for why ag is a good shot. i dont think ags team was bussing him very much so if blazade is a teammate, ag is a fairly safe scumbuddy to suggest without fear of him actually being shot. blazade does seem to be advancing his read on moody as a result of game progression so town-minded there.
#1353 Moody taking a definite stance on WIFOM is more in line with what I expect from him.
At 3 Mafia left i'm becoming more confident in public opinion and want to take stock of everyone's strongest townread again. Shoukd be useful later on.
and now we are back to towny moody. the 3 mafia are ag, sam and 1 of asek/blazade; i get that the numbers now favor town and all but for how mathy and rngy blazade has been the sudden interest in strong trs, possibly to find a consensus, could be mafia looking to see where they sit. nobody even answers his question on the same page bc moody and fh get into a spat.
#1367 Alright this is enough bickering lol.
I'm usually inclined to believe fights like this are TvT but really that's only true if one of the two parties isn't already contentious and Moody clearly is. I can see this fight from these personalities going down any way except if they're both scum but I'm like 50-30-20 TvT-FH scum-Moody scum here
I want to shoot outside of this, like AG or Asek or even the likes of Twin/Sam to start playing around the long game and taking care of people who are more confident in risky bus plays.
the first sentence gets a lot of towncred because scum would be fine with TvT tearing each other apart
the second makes little sense to me, blazade you were 50% TvT 30% fh scum 20% moody? after saying moody is the contentious one? it seems like you imply moody as scum is the reason this wouldnt be tvt yet have scumoody as the least likely. you had last read moody towny so this makes sense but i'd think you wouldn't point to moody as the factor that makes the fight possibly not tvt then
and now we get back to blazade wanting to shoot experienced players for meta reasons, not even scumread reasons because as far as we know from his posts he still townreads sam. i dislike this idea of wanting to shoot one of your townreads to play the 'long game' - there might not need to BE a long game if you shoot your scumreads instead of getting tricksy.
#1383 Think about motivations here. Scum don't want to get people who will shoot them shot at this numbers disadvantage. They want to get other people shot and blame it on someone else, or create a preflip causality that gets 2 town shot no matter what happens.
I agree with twin in that I think there's a good case for Hitmonleet here
i agree with blazade's point but i think he falls on his own sword - he hasn't pushed anything and i don't think he's really been in danger of being shot because fsr people just glossed over him all game. he has NEVER made a case for someone he's ok being shot, being shot. so when dbw got shot he just goes "well i said so!" and yes it's true he never pushed dbw but he never pushed not-dbw, either. he also never does the preflip thing which is in favor of him being town, so this post is kind of 50/50. not sure what blazade thinks makes the leet case good because surprise, he never explains it.
#1392 Yeah moody's been giving me really mixed signals this game. I never have him surviving to the end though so my read is more of a prediction to try and get a bead on other players at this point.
And I'm putting in work, Yeti. I may be more laid back than usual but this is far from jack shit.
Leet I was under the impression former and moody declared they'd shoot each other so forgive me if I didn't bundle you in that logic.
sounds like another flip flop on moody. i'm not even sure what the second sentence means.. a lot of the stuff blazade has said about moody is pretty shallow or weak in force so i am not sure how him flipping from town to scum read is getting a bead on other players. if blazade was like SHOOT MOODY HERE'S WHY and got like ag and sam instantly agreeing then i would credit him with a good job catching scum bandwagoning onto it but he just never does anything significant enough to impact others. like sure you're putting in some work but it's not effecting anyone.
#1400 Yo honestly I forgot about that good post a while back. I'm always gonna be wary of you Asek, because your scumgame is actually very good (as seen in paranoia, neighborhood, etc) so without strong evidence you are town I'm gonna be suspicious. Those reads back there do constitute strong evidence though.
blazade replies to asek asking why he and walrein scumread asek. it's a fair question because the reason for asek being a good shot to blazade hasn't been said in a long time; i don't consider "this player could be dangerous" an actual reason. blazade does bring up a good point about strong evidence needed for asek; he's a good player from what i've seen and should be able to post in such a fashion that warrants townreading him if he's town. the fact that nobody really has dug up reasons for asek being hard townread like sam did is a big point towards scum asek. i'm going to iso asek tomorrow accordingly.
#1480 People keep referencing his DBZ game but neut tells are town tells in NOC.
this post has been called out but this is an iso so. just disagree. dont think this is scum indicative though to have said.
#1503 RIP Jalmont thank you for your service.
Anyway yeah i called this as buddying but I was never sure enough to want Leet to survive to the end. Not much has changed in my mind, so shoot your conscience, Hitmonleet
asek is right that this first sentence is $#!% the second sentence caught me wary because "never sure?" blazade earlier said leet never endgames in his opinion and his most recent opinion on leet was twin makes a good case for him as a shot. this post in general is just bad and waffly and is doing:
They want to get other people shot and blame it on someone else
this exactly.
#1532 Wow that is super surreal to read coming from you.
Anyway I'm getting towny behavior from Moody again but at this point it's always difficult to tell whether someone is playing to the things I tell them makes them seem scummy (since I've been talking about it for so long)
Evidence is kind of mixed up but I maintain Josh had little reason ti flip on a scum there. I just remembered the reason for the flip on opinion was pretty sketch though coming from a scum.
I should probably stop fretting over this and move on to more likely targets tbh, it's frustrating.
I'll answer your questions when I get home in an hour or 2 hitmonleet
good emotional reaction to moody imo but now we get ANOTHER flip on moody. walrein what do you make of this? moody was a pretty erratic poster and as i caught when i iso'd him had a lot of inconsistencies within his own posts. but this could be blazade hedging his bet when moody flips town he can say "nah i town read him told you so something about josh here" like he did leet.
#1576 Calm your nips, Moody, I've been busy with work, RPGLB practice, and TTYD with the time I've got left.
I've answered all those questions recently too and my opinions haven't changed cause of hitmonleet's flip. I'll get around to it
the very next post is leet somewhat impulsively shooting twin imo so blazade never has a chance to answer leet's questions. this feels stally but i dont think it was intentional bc leet shot prematurely.
#1584 Man everyone wants to be a fucking hero and shoot random people that are widely townread so they can be the one that gets them. Must be a psychological thing.
alarm sirens should be going off that something doesnt quite add up. twin is one of the people blazade said should be shot before endgame just to resolve him before risky plays. there is nothing about twin since that post except regarding the case on leet so we can't provide any evidence to say blazade has changed his mind, twin shouldn't be shot, or he's even townreading twin. let me paste it again:
They want to get other people shot and blame it on someone else
hmmm. i was starting to feel townier on blazade up until 1503 and the following posts. this 1500s series has looked really bad for blazade imo, he keeps dropping useless gunbearer reaction lines that take no credit for the shots when some of the last things he's said about the shot were "they could be a good one" in essence.
#1600 Asek was too, so was Yeti, so was i to a certain extent, Josh wanted flyhn and hitmonleet up though so it's not really too big a litmus test imo.
responds to fh asking who wanted flyhn alive to the end making them townier. it feels sort of like what scum ag does being helpful answering questions and he kind of undermines fh implying anyone who wanted flyhn is towny by bringing up josh. to be fair i also question townreading the people who did support flyhn. so not gonna call this post scummy.
#1603 Idk people have been arguing themselves in circles for the better part of a week now, I attribute most of the flyhn paranoia to an overreaction to people not wanting to trust someone other people are throwing in with.
Hell, even Twin would have made me scared in LYLO, I admit that, however poor a shot it was especially at this point.
but you said.......... w/e
#1616 Vote Aura Guardian
He's been phoning it in for a while now imo.
Endgame Order
Me!
UncleSam - Only player with hard wagonomics supporting him, I still think that push wasn't a bus
Yeti - Some good pushes at the right time, overall towny behvaior, and some preflip connections and attacks from scum
Walrein - This was town DLE and walrein acts busy and had some good reads but the further drop in activity is starting to decay the read slightly
Asek - Some good reads and good activity but he tends to have great tone as scum and buddying/busing is encouraged here. If some of the bottom 3 turn up town I start to suspect him if it's like any 3 people and me left.
Former Hope -I haven't been reading this too closely or getting anything other than contentious bickering from his interactions. Maybe SvS bus with moody, maybe just Town former getting in fights like he always does. I never read this guy right so idk. I don't have a reason to believe though
MoodyCloud - too much bad to keep him around, especially after these last couple flips confirm no illuminati
Aura Guardian
well now we get some concrete reads besides "my view is flipping" and some reasons. at last. the post we've been waiting for.
voting ag here as a teammate is a needlessly risky play bc flyhn is playing deadline chicken and it would've been very easy for blazade to push moody again, or possibly work off sam and push walrein. that said the towncred is easy too. having sam as top town bc of the bus when a lot of his reason for shifting off moody related to a bus isnt great. interesting he has 1 scum at the top and 1 at the bottom of his order. overall town for this post.
#1652 Ey I'm glad I'm not crazy because I've been on AG for a while now.
One thing I noticed a lot is that I and others would sometimes bring up AG, but it usually got ignored in the wake of the following discussion. I'll do this when i get home but an inportant thing we should be looking for is people who tried to distract public opinion by sidestepping to other targets like FH-moody or Hitmonleet
...does this post give anyone else towncred vibes? after distancing himself from failed flips before that he did have ties to, now he peacocks a bit about ag.
did anyone ever look into who distracted from ag? i had been pushing him for quite a while but i'm not sure he had enough teammates left to really distract away from him esp after jalmont; i'm not sure how conclusive this avenue will be.
#1684/6 I can answer that.
Scum only need to say things that make sense at the time. They'll sometimes push, and sometimes not, on their buddies, but they'll try and latch onto things they find noticeable no matter what.
There's too much WIFOM in here lol
And to clarify, discerning other people's motivations especially when there have been flips makes for great scumhunting but it sucks when you use it on yourself for reasons that should be clear. So stop doing it.
answers fh. this sort of continues with how blazade will be helpful and answer questions but by answering this question, he's made a post, looked useful, but actually done nothing to aggress finding scum.
as for the second post, why haven't you been doing it more.
#1699 I'd be a lot more paranoid as scum in this game, if you want my self aware assessment, anyone that's seen me play on an informed faction in an OC should see that.
yeah and we also think you'd be a lot more helpful as town. but w/e
#1708 Yes he [Moody] alwasy plays like this but in the beginning he was very much not like this. This is why I'm confused. He's either town starting to pay attention or scum learning from me explicitly pointing out his towntells
answering walrein. blazade has a LOT of connections with moody, probably more than with anyone else esp since moody way outlived josh. i find it odd he doesn't have that many with other players, there's a lot missing aimed at fh, me, walrein for instance. some, he has some, but.. yknow. this is further setup for a moody flip either way that doesnt reflect badly on him.
#1810 Hey what's up.
I was wrong about Sam so sorry about that but evidence isn't proof and intuition isn't perfect.
Top town still Yeti/Walrein.
Isn't there only one scum left?
Shot today is Asek/moody imo.
Phone posting from work so you guys are gonna have to give me a few hours
at least hes up front about misreading sam. walrein promptly asks where fh is from this which was exactly my thought when reading it.
which he never does unless the post didnt show up in the iso.
#1844/5 I have been waiting to be GB all game and reading the thread.
I'm surprised walrein wouldn't want me on the trigger for him since I had faith in him all game
I called it as TvT too like 30 pages ago
to fh re: fh/moody. again theres a lot of like, retrospective "i called it!" by blazade, the problem is, it's cool you got it right, congrats, but you never DID ANYTHING with that before whoever got misfired on. inactive or not blazade has let a whole lot of stuff just kinda happen that he then says "i was right" which is easy for a scum to say btw. though he seems fairly confident of getting the gun like he would as town.
my eyes are starting to hurt from staring at the screen and the rest of these posts are super recent so im gonna stop here. i havent cped every post but most of them.
from this there are a couple that make me give a big town read to blazade (1616) but more that give me huge pause and a big scum read to him (the 1500s, the instant towncred in 1652).
my conclusions from this are that he has said a lot of good-sounding stuff but not done anything with that when it was still relevant. he has been right on things but that doesn't matter much once the misshot is made. he even calls this out as scummy behavior yet consistently will comment on the shot and whether he had 'called it' that X was town for X reason or not.
when has blazade pushed a read or built a case for anyone?
looking at these posts, never, which bothers me immensely. town blazade is normally a big presence in a noc, once i am paranoid of because if he's scum he can sway people and provide some solid sounding logic. i have seen none of that here. he just straight hasn't done anything and after pointing out it's scum who DO want to push things and do things, i feel like he's taken the opposite approach to that to try and inflate himself into towny play.
i need to iso asek which im not going to do tonight before i can compare them against each other and say what % i think each has of being scum in relation to each other.
in a vacuum, i think blazade lacks a lot of condemning evidence to make him town or scum but has more suspicious threads in his posts that push me to say scum.
also in a vacuum, as long as walrein shoots 1 of them and if the game doesn't end, that one shoots the other, the game is won. though this is obviously not the perspective of the other remaining non-rein town. as much as i dislike blazade's active lurking i think it's a benefit to this endgame that both other players have been following along the game, so i feel pretty confident either would think their shot through. if the game just doesn't straight end with walrein's shot which jesus christ i hope it does. now i remember why i take noc hiatuses im not willing to lose to inactive cucks but its effort af to wallpost and dig through everything.
the fact that blazade has little to warrant hard townreading him but also not a whole lot that's seriously incriminating outside of the 1500s that i think are really bad makes me think he's scum because even an afk scum blazade would be able to craft his posts in such a way that dont make people really double take them. nobody has really put a whole lot of pressure on blazade this game even when people like me have called for it due to his low post count. you'd think scum would be opportunistic about this but they haven't really been.
i think the problem we're going to hit when asek gets iso'd is there's not going to be much to warrant a hard townread on asek, either. they're in the same kind of neutral boat where they haven't posted as much as other people like myself, fh but the posts haven't been just Bad at times like sam's have been. but lgi and see what we find.
i think the problem we're going to hit when asek gets iso'd is there's not going to be much to warrant a hard townread on asek, either. they're in the same kind of neutral boat where they haven't posted as much as other people like myself, fh but the posts haven't been just Bad at times like sam's have been. but lgi and see what we find.
Asek
Banned deucer.
I lay money i have a highet volume of posts then you
Asek
Banned deucer.
Why woukd i iso myself...
that reading comprehension fail
walrein iso's you.
id be hardcore surprised if you had more posts than me. we both had a vacation period where we didnt post much but outside of that your posts just arent memorable. if you have posted more than me while being way less of a presence thats Concerning
like in a fraction of the posts either blazade or asek have made dle had an idea that was discussed a lot longer.
walrein iso's you.
id be hardcore surprised if you had more posts than me. we both had a vacation period where we didnt post much but outside of that your posts just arent memorable. if you have posted more than me while being way less of a presence thats Concerning
like in a fraction of the posts either blazade or asek have made dle had an idea that was discussed a lot longer.
for fun:
yeti: 182
asek: 133
blazade: 81
walrein: 142 (this is shocking) + dle: 17
shubaka: 5
texas: 18
haruno: 35
empoof: 141
dbw: 18
winter-delta: 25
josh: 154 + pancake: 12
fcc: 38 + king: 35
jalmont: 71
hitmonleet: 85
twin: 200
ag: 74
unclesam: 25
flyhn: 136
moody: 109
fh: 123
so not only are you not above me, you're not even in the top 5 by volume
i am actually really surprised that twin hit 200 and more than me considering he was a lot less active than me early. also that josh had 154 posts. empoof makes sense he's spammy. flyhn i'm proud of you son clocking in at 136. more than every pokeguynxb noc combined.
sam having the same number as w-d despite living for like half the game longer and being townread by both blazade and asek is insane. why couldn't one of you be intelligent about him???
ag only having 74 is REALLY surprising because if you told me 133 and 74 and asked me to pick which was asek's and ag's count i would've switched them, i feel like he posted way more than that.
twin
yeti
josh slot
walrein slot
empoof
flyhn
asek
former hope
moody
(the 100 club)
hitmonleet
blazade
aura guardian
fcc slot
jalmont
(there is a serious drop off here to the next one)
haruno
w-d / unclesam
dbw / texas
20,000 leagues
shubaka
the only scum in the top 5 is josh. 3/5 bottom 5 were scum. sam is the huge outlier there because he lived significantly longer than the others, despite most of his team bussing him. ag and the fcc slot + king are next to each other right below blazade/leet.
11 posters didnt hit 100 posts, of those, 5 have been confirmed mafia, all in the bottom 9. blazade would be sub-100 #10. asek would be the second scum above 100 posts. i think i would lean blazade scum off of this because most of the team has tried to lay low and post little, outside of josh. that said, asek feeling like he's had WAY more contributions than he actually has is ??
i dont think this data is indicative of alignment at all but since asek tried to call me out and failed horribly, being the #7 poster by volume even, here it is.
yeti: 182
asek: 133
blazade: 81
walrein: 142 (this is shocking) + dle: 17
shubaka: 5
texas: 18
haruno: 35
empoof: 141
dbw: 18
winter-delta: 25
josh: 154 + pancake: 12
fcc: 38 + king: 35
jalmont: 71
hitmonleet: 85
twin: 200
ag: 74
unclesam: 25
flyhn: 136
moody: 109
fh: 123
so not only are you not above me, you're not even in the top 5 by volume
i am actually really surprised that twin hit 200 and more than me considering he was a lot less active than me early. also that josh had 154 posts. empoof makes sense he's spammy. flyhn i'm proud of you son clocking in at 136. more than every pokeguynxb noc combined.
sam having the same number as w-d despite living for like half the game longer and being townread by both blazade and asek is insane. why couldn't one of you be intelligent about him???
ag only having 74 is REALLY surprising because if you told me 133 and 74 and asked me to pick which was asek's and ag's count i would've switched them, i feel like he posted way more than that.
twin
yeti
josh slot
walrein slot
empoof
flyhn
asek
former hope
moody
(the 100 club)
hitmonleet
blazade
aura guardian
fcc slot
jalmont
(there is a serious drop off here to the next one)
haruno
w-d / unclesam
dbw / texas
20,000 leagues
shubaka
the only scum in the top 5 is josh. 3/5 bottom 5 were scum. sam is the huge outlier there because he lived significantly longer than the others, despite most of his team bussing him. ag and the fcc slot + king are next to each other right below blazade/leet.
11 posters didnt hit 100 posts, of those, 5 have been confirmed mafia, all in the bottom 9. blazade would be sub-100 #10. asek would be the second scum above 100 posts. i think i would lean blazade scum off of this because most of the team has tried to lay low and post little, outside of josh. that said, asek feeling like he's had WAY more contributions than he actually has is ??
i dont think this data is indicative of alignment at all but since asek tried to call me out and failed horribly, being the #7 poster by volume even, here it is.
Asek
Banned deucer.
Please dont misgender me in the future
i straight dont know which one of the two is mafia and blazade doesnt seem eager to make a case for anything here, maybe bc as scum he wants less of an impact? flyhn's plan worked for me bc i was 95% sure moody was the last mafia, then after he flipped town i reevaluated and felt that walrein only could be scum if he and sam staged the theatrics so i was way more confident shooting both blazade and asek (if needed) before f3 would result in the win.
u can do it but itll gimp my odds of shooting right bc i'll be shooting between the two people i'm having trouble telling between; i think i would shoot blazade based off my game-long reads where asek never registered as a very good shot? but i've been wary about blazade's contribution level for quite a while. like for me, even if you shoot the one who is town, they can just shoot the other and BAM game won, ez. if i have to choose between the two theres gonna be a lot of WIFOMy stuff to sort through. IE did sam separate asek in reads from an all-town list bc asek is the partner or was blazade tossed in with other towns to try and blend him in?
its annoying the last 50/50 is between two ppl who hard townread sam when he had 25 gd posts and both have posted "a lot" without driving much discussion; i'd say asek has had more of an impact than blazade but neither has really pushed stuff. especially blazade. maybe ill find something more conclusive in my asek iso but i just dont feel like either player's posts have a reason to hard townread them. and it gives me great concern a player like blazade just sort of fits into a neutral slot. maybe thats normal for asek, i havent played a noc with her iirc.
i think the biggest thing that would make me tell you to shoot blazade over asek here or if i got the gun would be those 1500s posts. after blazade has said he thinks scum are most likely to get pushes developed and then back away from them he does that. he did it before with the DBW misshot (vouched he was town), he does it after with AG flipping scum (ay told you) and during those 1500s series he does it.
it's particularly suspicious that he calls twin a poor shot despite his last recorded statement on twin being that twin should be considered as a shot to prevent him from making it to endgame. i also find this mentality extremely unhelpful to town because it encourages them to shoot experienced players to prevent paranoia or endgame outplays rather than shooting your actual scumread(s), unless your top scumread was sam or twin. then when it happens blazade washes his hands of it.
but again, i havent reread asek yet which i'll do tonight.
i really wish moody had taken more time and not just jerkfired onto fh because flyhn's plan was never a surefire dichotomy 1 of them would be scum, and after the one i thought was mafia, wasn't, i would've rather spent some time discussing shooting between blazade and asek at that shot. zzz. at this point it is certain 1 of blazade and asek is mafia at the least. ayy.
u can do it but itll gimp my odds of shooting right bc i'll be shooting between the two people i'm having trouble telling between; i think i would shoot blazade based off my game-long reads where asek never registered as a very good shot? but i've been wary about blazade's contribution level for quite a while. like for me, even if you shoot the one who is town, they can just shoot the other and BAM game won, ez. if i have to choose between the two theres gonna be a lot of WIFOMy stuff to sort through. IE did sam separate asek in reads from an all-town list bc asek is the partner or was blazade tossed in with other towns to try and blend him in?
its annoying the last 50/50 is between two ppl who hard townread sam when he had 25 gd posts and both have posted "a lot" without driving much discussion; i'd say asek has had more of an impact than blazade but neither has really pushed stuff. especially blazade. maybe ill find something more conclusive in my asek iso but i just dont feel like either player's posts have a reason to hard townread them. and it gives me great concern a player like blazade just sort of fits into a neutral slot. maybe thats normal for asek, i havent played a noc with her iirc.
i think the biggest thing that would make me tell you to shoot blazade over asek here or if i got the gun would be those 1500s posts. after blazade has said he thinks scum are most likely to get pushes developed and then back away from them he does that. he did it before with the DBW misshot (vouched he was town), he does it after with AG flipping scum (ay told you) and during those 1500s series he does it.
it's particularly suspicious that he calls twin a poor shot despite his last recorded statement on twin being that twin should be considered as a shot to prevent him from making it to endgame. i also find this mentality extremely unhelpful to town because it encourages them to shoot experienced players to prevent paranoia or endgame outplays rather than shooting your actual scumread(s), unless your top scumread was sam or twin. then when it happens blazade washes his hands of it.
but again, i havent reread asek yet which i'll do tonight.
i really wish moody had taken more time and not just jerkfired onto fh because flyhn's plan was never a surefire dichotomy 1 of them would be scum, and after the one i thought was mafia, wasn't, i would've rather spent some time discussing shooting between blazade and asek at that shot. zzz. at this point it is certain 1 of blazade and asek is mafia at the least. ayy.
Yeti you always have this problem with me where you don't feel like I'm pushing people enough or building big cases but I'm not gonna try to convince people of my opinions unless I know I'm right.
I said i'd be back at around midnight and I will be. I have to make a strong statement before tomorrow when either I'm gunbearer or I know who the scum is. That's too important to miss.
I said i'd be back at around midnight and I will be. I have to make a strong statement before tomorrow when either I'm gunbearer or I know who the scum is. That's too important to miss.
idk i mean i get where you're coming from but that just sounds like a cop-out to not do anything impactful
town never knows anything except their own alignment, everything is speculation, which is why i find locktowns such a dumb concept. thing is, at some point town have to be willing to press their read X should be shot or X should not be shot. if you let someone else direct the game, you get boozled.
saying "well i called it!" after dbw/leet/whoever flip town is useless. completely useless. nobody cares if you were right they were town because you did nothing with that information. if you felt strongly they were town perhaps you should've vocalized not shooting them more instead of letting misfires happen. i dunno dude i'm just not really impressed with how lackluster you've been this game. stuff just happens around you and after it does you say "points to me i was right" but like thats not helping us win. it gives me mafia vibes more than town because letting people you know are town get misfired on and then saying "heh, knew it" so people think you're accurate is just so unhelpful.
like ill take ownership over the fact i was one of the people pushing for a dbw shot because i did strongly scumread him and felt that there was a good connection to dle if dbw flipped mafia, and was wrong, but at least i put my read out there, yknow?? i'm never going to 'know' i'm right but if i operate with that mentality the game is just gonna happen around me, at some point town need to commit.
at the very least, putting forth the evidence you think makes X town and Y scum lets other people interact with it. you don't even need to try to persuade people, just start up a conversation. you did that a couple times and were mostly ignored but there are also a LOT of missed opportunities for you to say why you wanted to vote people, namely asek who you've never really elaborated on why you thought she was a good shot.
town never knows anything except their own alignment, everything is speculation, which is why i find locktowns such a dumb concept. thing is, at some point town have to be willing to press their read X should be shot or X should not be shot. if you let someone else direct the game, you get boozled.
saying "well i called it!" after dbw/leet/whoever flip town is useless. completely useless. nobody cares if you were right they were town because you did nothing with that information. if you felt strongly they were town perhaps you should've vocalized not shooting them more instead of letting misfires happen. i dunno dude i'm just not really impressed with how lackluster you've been this game. stuff just happens around you and after it does you say "points to me i was right" but like thats not helping us win. it gives me mafia vibes more than town because letting people you know are town get misfired on and then saying "heh, knew it" so people think you're accurate is just so unhelpful.
like ill take ownership over the fact i was one of the people pushing for a dbw shot because i did strongly scumread him and felt that there was a good connection to dle if dbw flipped mafia, and was wrong, but at least i put my read out there, yknow?? i'm never going to 'know' i'm right but if i operate with that mentality the game is just gonna happen around me, at some point town need to commit.
at the very least, putting forth the evidence you think makes X town and Y scum lets other people interact with it. you don't even need to try to persuade people, just start up a conversation. you did that a couple times and were mostly ignored but there are also a LOT of missed opportunities for you to say why you wanted to vote people, namely asek who you've never really elaborated on why you thought she was a good shot.
well when asked by asek why you had her as a shot for a while you did give A Reason but the whole time you were suggesting asek you didn't which i take issue with whenever people do that
idgaf who you want to vote unless you tell me why so i can analyze your logic and agree or disagree with it, not doing so is just tossing an empty vote out there to look like you're helping
idgaf who you want to vote unless you tell me why so i can analyze your logic and agree or disagree with it, not doing so is just tossing an empty vote out there to look like you're helping
Every death where I made a comment after the fact I did talk about my opinions prior.
It's less about towncred or whatever you want to believe and more a reflex vent/personal validation. Maybe people go back and read my other posts, or read my next ones more carefully.
Still entertaining family, not for much longer though.
It's less about towncred or whatever you want to believe and more a reflex vent/personal validation. Maybe people go back and read my other posts, or read my next ones more carefully.
Still entertaining family, not for much longer though.
Alright, so keeping in mind that I know Asek's NOC scumgame but not Yeti's here's my analysis from briefly looking at the ISOs again.
I read Yeti's ISOs and content as coming from natural opinions and arguments. I also see styles of argumentation that I saw as town and can't all be easy to fabricate at once, and proper reads at the right times (shub, Flyhn, Sam for instance) and not just like first, or as they are about to get lynched, but in the face of opposition and consistently so. DLE's town gu which got me reading both DLE and yet as town really resonated with me at that point, none of the pressure from the scum and empoof was making sense and that was a big moment of clarity.
I want to town read Asek, I really do. He's putting clear, demonstrable effort into the game. I see well reasoned reads and some are well placed, but nothing I haven't seen before as scum Asek. Probably the biggest red flag and only solid piece of evidence is even when he gets town reads or scum reads right it feels like he's moving the goalposts on people he wants to shoot. Like moody,walrein,Leet,AG, me in that order still puts 3 town first and starts drawing up an implication. Later on, moody former, former me. It's also posts like "Twin and I might be town bros" where you get him trying to buddy twin and anyone else who read that after twin flipped town or any of the preflip implications involving Sam that get me. I read generally thinner contribution in terms of genuine weight of belief behind the arguments, but this can be tricky to read in a game like this.
So yeah I still think it's a tough call, I still think it's unclear, but I am about 70-30 that the last scum is Asek, and if I get the gun that's what I'm doing.
I don't really have enough time to do more with this, go ahead and shoot, I've said my piece
I read Yeti's ISOs and content as coming from natural opinions and arguments. I also see styles of argumentation that I saw as town and can't all be easy to fabricate at once, and proper reads at the right times (shub, Flyhn, Sam for instance) and not just like first, or as they are about to get lynched, but in the face of opposition and consistently so. DLE's town gu which got me reading both DLE and yet as town really resonated with me at that point, none of the pressure from the scum and empoof was making sense and that was a big moment of clarity.
I want to town read Asek, I really do. He's putting clear, demonstrable effort into the game. I see well reasoned reads and some are well placed, but nothing I haven't seen before as scum Asek. Probably the biggest red flag and only solid piece of evidence is even when he gets town reads or scum reads right it feels like he's moving the goalposts on people he wants to shoot. Like moody,walrein,Leet,AG, me in that order still puts 3 town first and starts drawing up an implication. Later on, moody former, former me. It's also posts like "Twin and I might be town bros" where you get him trying to buddy twin and anyone else who read that after twin flipped town or any of the preflip implications involving Sam that get me. I read generally thinner contribution in terms of genuine weight of belief behind the arguments, but this can be tricky to read in a game like this.
So yeah I still think it's a tough call, I still think it's unclear, but I am about 70-30 that the last scum is Asek, and if I get the gun that's what I'm doing.
I don't really have enough time to do more with this, go ahead and shoot, I've said my piece
- Status