Simple Questions/Requests - Mark 46 (Minor Pokemon Trades, Item Requests etc GO HERE) (NO HACKING)

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Anyone have a spare timid male tentacool with Haze (and possibly Mirror Coat?). I have some lure ball females (non-HA) if you're interested.
 
Simple question: How do I do probability of things like these:

252+ Atk Choice Band Talonflame Flare Blitz vs. 228 HP / 28 Def Mega Charizard Y in Sun on a critical hit: 164-193 (90.1 - 106%) -- 37.5% chance to OHKO

^ that's why I lost. 6.25% chance of a crit, 5/16ths chance of a high enough damage roll. Can anyone give me the odds of that, I ignored everything related to probability in HS because it's a load of total shit.

That and the odds of moving while Paralyzed, after being hit by Rock Slide + Serene Grace Air Slash.
 
Simple question: How do I do probability of things like these:

252+ Atk Choice Band Talonflame Flare Blitz vs. 228 HP / 28 Def Mega Charizard Y in Sun on a critical hit: 164-193 (90.1 - 106%) -- 37.5% chance to OHKO

^ that's why I lost. 6.25% chance of a crit, 5/16ths chance of a high enough damage roll. Can anyone give me the odds of that, I ignored everything related to probability in HS because it's a load of total shit.

That and the odds of moving while Paralyzed, after being hit by Rock Slide + Serene Grace Air Slash.
odds of a crit happening * chance of high enough damage roll / 100 = actual chance Charizard dies
= (6.25 * 37.5) / 100
= 2.34375% of the time that Talonflame will OHKO that Charizard with a Brave Bird
= a little more than 1 in 50 of these Brave Birds will be enough to OHKO

not sure about para + flinch odds and too tired to google rn
 
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.com

Grumpy old man
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That and the odds of moving while Paralyzed, after being hit by Rock Slide + Serene Grace Air Slash.
Maths in Courier New.

Running with these odds:
Serence Grace + Air Slash = 19/20 * 2 * 3/10 = 57/100 for hit + flinch.
Rock Slide = 9/10 * 3/10 = 27/100 for hit + flinch.
Paralyze = 1/4 for no move.

Code:
1/4  // Paralysed
+
3/4*  // Not paralysed
(
  57/100  // Serene Grace + Air Slash
  +
  (1-57/100)*  // Serene Grace + Air Slash fails
  27/100  // Rock Slide
)
=
30583 / 40000
So 1-30583/40000 = 9417/40000 or ~23.5% for doing something.

Edit: Actually, I ignored the odds the moves hit... Will edit that in if I can be bothered.
Think I did this.
Edit Edit: Hey, paralysis is 25% (this is now accounted for)... Who knew. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Drop the 9/10 from Rock Slide to account for that being 100% accurate.
 
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Zari

What impossible odds?
is a Contributor Alumnus
I'm currently looking for a female, level ball (
) Exeggcute / Exeggutor. Does not need EMs or any particular IVs. Willing to negotiate on what the other party wants in return, since I have a lot of mons lying around (both 6G and otherwise). Any help on getting me this mon would be greatly appreciated, since my bank pass is currently expired (and inputting funds is a pain for me ;-;).
 
Maths in Courier New.

Running with these odds:
Serence Grace + Air Slash = 2 * 3/10 = 3/5 for flinch.
Rock Slide = 3/10 for flinch.
Paralyze = 1/2 for no move.

So if Paralysis strikes, that's
1/2 +
If Paralysis doesn't:
1/2 * (
If Serene Grace + Air Slash hits:
3/5 +
If Serene Grace + Air Slash doesn't:
(1-3/5)*(3/10)
)
= 43/50.


So 1-43/50 = 7/50 for moving.

Edit: Actually, I ignored the odds the moves hit... Will edit that in if I can be bothered.
Oh, don't bother on accuracy actually, it's a 100% accurate rock slide / don't care on Air slash. lol.

So, paralysis DID go from 1/4 chance of fully paralyzed to 1/2? Still reduces speed to 1/4th too right?
God Paralysis is broken as fuck.
 
Oh, don't bother on accuracy actually, it's a 100% accurate rock slide / don't care on Air slash. lol.

So, paralysis DID go from 1/4 chance of fully paralyzed to 1/2? Still reduces speed to 1/4th too right?
God Paralysis is broken as fuck.
I'm pretty sure that the chance that you lose a turn because of paralysis is still only 1/4. Otherwise my experience on BS has been a statistical anomaly so far...
 

.com

Grumpy old man
is a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Community Contributor Alumnus
Oh, don't bother on accuracy actually, it's a 100% accurate rock slide / don't care on Air slash. lol.

So, paralysis DID go from 1/4 chance of fully paralyzed to 1/2? Still reduces speed to 1/4th too right?
God Paralysis is broken as fuck.
Edited the post. It's late :(. 25% for paralysis is correct, as is the Speed.
 

cant say

twitch.tv/jakecantsay
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EDIT: It's a Dream Ball HA female.
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Hi there. Anyone there with a sheer force Totodile? Or any other Hoenn starter with their hidden abilities? Doesn't need to be shiny or 5-6 iv. I can breed for it. I could only offer 4 iv timid protean Froakie spitbacks in a dive ball though.. I could offer a 5iv breeding pair timid protean froakies for all 3 or am i asking too much?
 

Esmeya

There's nothing left. Goodbye.
is a Community Contributor Alumnus
Hi there. Anyone there with a sheer force Totodile? Or any other Hoenn starter with their hidden abilities? Doesn't need to be shiny or 5-6 iv. I can breed for it. I could only offer 4 iv timid protean Froakie spitbacks in a dive ball though.. I could offer a 5iv breeding pair timid protean froakies for all 3 or am i asking too much?
Hello there. If you still need these I can give you all three for free, I will PM you and you can get them via GTS.
 
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