NOC Matrix 12 NOC - Game Over, Mafia Wins

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LightWolf

lightwoof
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
I'm trying to think in the sense of what ifs again. This time I'm thinking, IF Hawkie is scum, was the Texas lynch beneficial to scumHawkie.

Texas had a theory he mostly operated on, about how the votes were spread out day 1, claiming at least 1 scum was on each wagon. I reviewed this list of his(you can find the last version on page 174 I believe). This was his main reason for suspecting me, as only two possible scum were left for one of the wagons. The other person on said wagon was Hawkie, who Texas didn't consider an option mostly because of a heavy town read on him.

Now what happens, if I flip before Texas. Obviously, he'd instantly suspect the last person to complete his theory, Hawkie. In such a case Hawkie has three options.

Lynch Knights->Lynch Texas->Lynch LW; Lynch Texas->Lynch Knights->Lynch LW; Lynch Knights->Lynch LW->Lynch Texas. The first and second case are p much identical to each other, leave me last and as long as I am a suspect Texas's claim is irrelevant. In the last one, as long as I die second Texas only has an anti Hawkie argument when it's only him vs Hawkie(there is the Knights goes to lylo scenario, but if the theory is brought up by knights or empoof it's the second worst result).

Of all of these the BEST option for assumed scum Hawkie is lynch Texas first, and remove any chance of me flipping before him.
 
i don't have a defence against it because it's simply untrue

you've blatantly been scrambling for a reason for scum!me to tunnel texas ever since this day started and you've finally waffled out the first "theory" you could come up with
 
I like the
I'm trying to think in the sense of what ifs again. This time I'm thinking, IF Hawkie is scum, was the Texas lynch beneficial to scumHawkie.
part though.

The opening lines of this post are cleverly manipulative in a psychological sense. The only person he cares that reads it will be Empoof, so he immediately refers to the seed of doubt he wants to sow in his mind ("IF Hawkie is scum") before he gives his argument which i'll admit is well thought out.

If that wasn't your intention I still think it's quite off since you should be operating under the mindset that I am scum from your POV.
 

LightWolf

lightwoof
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
I'm not trying to convince myself that you are scum though, the one who I am making the case to is Empoof. And I have generally learned people understand my points better if I distance myself from my PoV. My PoV does not matter, Empoof's does. This behavior has reached the point where I feel physical pain when someone leaves themself out of a pool of players they should be in just because they are clean from their PoV.

Point is, if I know I'm good, then any PoV where I'm not will be proven false, and I am willing to discuss within those PoVs because that will merely disprove it quicker than shouting "but my PoV!" This why I read Yeti positively for disproving scum pairings suggested between her and now dead towns, she went into the scenarios to find the problems rather than just saying she is town therefore not true(she did say that too).

So yeah, saying it's untrue because you aren't scum is not a defense nor disproves my scenario. You are holding a smoking gun in a room only you had the key to and it automatically teleports anyone out who doesn't come in with you, next to you is the dead body of LightWolf, who died of a gunshot wound. You say you aren't scum. Clearly the police will just agree with you yes. This is not a direct comparison, my theory is at best an assumed motive. The point is, you don't disprove any form of Hawkie is scum argument by saying "it's not true". What you say is that the gun is not only fully loaded, but there is no sign of it haviNg been fired the last month, the lock shows signs of having been opened by a key made from a different material and the body is covered in your hair and finger nails, which may have fooled the telepOrt system.

you've blatantly been scrambling for a reason for scum!me to tunnel texas ever since this day started and you've finally waffled out the first "theory" you could come up with


Well yes? This is a bad thing how? By all accounts I expected the game to end with Knights, I had no evidence to suggest you were scum before this. So yes I would be and will be scrambling to find the smallest sliver of a suggestion of a whisper that could prove you are scum.

You are p much just reacting to me accusing you, and any meaningful suspicions provided by you were either the result of me saying scum had no reason to attempt killing you n3 or from quoting day 1-3 read posts of yours.

You are essentially just coasting by because Empoof is set your windcondition as not letting me conVince him. No need to be proactive when that can only trip you up, and as long as I don't get first place you dont have to care about anything but not getting last place.
 
I'm trying to think in the sense of what ifs again. This time I'm thinking, IF Hawkie is scum, was the Texas lynch beneficial to scumHawkie.

Texas had a theory he mostly operated on, about how the votes were spread out day 1, claiming at least 1 scum was on each wagon. I reviewed this list of his(you can find the last version on page 174 I believe). This was his main reason for suspecting me, as only two possible scum were left for one of the wagons. The other person on said wagon was Hawkie, who Texas didn't consider an option mostly because of a heavy town read on him.

Now what happens, if I flip before Texas. Obviously, he'd instantly suspect the last person to complete his theory, Hawkie. In such a case Hawkie has three options.

Lynch Knights->Lynch Texas->Lynch LW; Lynch Texas->Lynch Knights->Lynch LW; Lynch Knights->Lynch LW->Lynch Texas. The first and second case are p much identical to each other, leave me last and as long as I am a suspect Texas's claim is irrelevant. In the last one, as long as I die second Texas only has an anti Hawkie argument when it's only him vs Hawkie(there is the Knights goes to lylo scenario, but if the theory is brought up by knights or empoof it's the second worst result).

Of all of these the BEST option for assumed scum Hawkie is lynch Texas first, and remove any chance of me flipping before him.
ok let's pretend we're in this scenario. I am scum!Hawkie who Texas has read as conftown for the vast majority of the game.

Texas did have a theory that he updated each day, but from what i can recall it wasn't the driving force between his reads and voting pattern and a lot of the time he didn't reference it further in the day. It's not like he only read people in those group or only entertained lynches on them (i might be wrong i never payed much attention to the wallposts).

I don't think he put enough weight on them for scum to actually kill/push lynches directly based on Texas' daily wallpost update. If I were scum on the day I tunnelled Texas, do I really turn on one of the people who thinks I'm town for sure on the off chance that in the last two days of the game he might flip his read on me based on his theory while there are still multiple people he suspects?

I turned on Texas only upon re-reading D1-D2 and his interactions with FH/Hitmonleet and thought I was the Cat That Caught The Fish. The more I read further the more sure I got and the harder I pushed him. I'm not proud of it but I don't think any scum player would tunnel Texas like I did in my position as a major townread based on his theory posts. I also think I would've kept the case I had on him for when he turns on me based on his theory (in this scenario) to refute him because I think my argument on Texas was quite a convincing one.
 

LightWolf

lightwoof
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
I don't think he put enough weight on them for scum to actually kill/push lynches directly based on Texas' daily wallpost update.
And you failed maintaining the PoV here. Perfect time for it too. Again as you said you are considered conf town Hawkie, the only major thing suspecting you REPEATED EVERY DAY is that post, and upon my demise that'd have turned its gaze towards the one possibility left you. It'd be in your best interest to remove Texas before my removal. As long as you refuse to actually speak about anything but your town PoV you can't consider fighting this point.

Also can you stop depending on memory, Texas' main reasoning against me was always that wall post, if you are claiming it's irrelevant and he didn't use it, then go back and prove it.
 
Why does LightWolf kill fort when I've expressed opinions that I'm likely to question him the whole game.

Hawkie calls fort 100% town the day he dies, and fort was questioning hawkie's alignment slightly.

I don't see LightWolf setting up the plan of taking Hawkie to f3 right then when he could kill widely townread Yeti who reads him well that night instead.
 
anyway about this game

something tells me lw is actually the shadier of the two between him and knights but it was texas's last will and testament that we lynch knights first so, there's that.

i do take the fort kill as scum!hawkie indicative because the smartest move for mafia at this point is to try and get rid of the people empoof is more likely to side with at LYLO than The Scum and i have a hard time seeing ANYONE beating out hawkie at LYLO

hawkie has had the jumpiest votes i think ruling nobody out, really, which i think makes him the most likely to be scum in that he's trying to see who he can lynch on any given day. it really doesn't matter to him who gets to LYLO against him, as long as he keeps the firm TR from pretty much the rest of the game. nobody has him anywhere near PoE.

thus, objectively, hawkie was a better n7 kill than fort.

of course now having tinfoiled all this im gonna be the n8 kill to make it hawkie v lw/knights and this is gonna be playing on empoof's mind kekkkkkkkkkkk

but is that what i really wanted all along

was to die

in this game
 
i have no other defence other than scum!Lightwolf probably starts preparing for F3 the day Texas got lynched (or maybe before, i don't know), if he's scum he knows he's in a bad position to win and has to do something drastic (taking the most townread besides the IC to lylo) to have a chance of winning the game. The day I tunnelled Texas which gave him reasoning against me and then the next two nights the only people who express doubt on my alignment die? IF LightWolf is scum reading over that day looking at arguments and who he can take to F3 and chooses to go for the gambit on me with the reasoning of my flip on Texas it makes sense for him to make kills that discredit me.
 
Alright I'm gonna throw the game because it makes me feel okay right now. I also have a lot going on this week so I should just get it over with.

I think Hawkie making all those promises during the texas day was really scummy. Hawkie was with me calling Knights confirmed town and his reasoning for voting him is garbage because there is none. I remember him saying to LW that if the game is still going after the texas lynch then we'll vote knights. That felt very off to me and he was literally buying the vote. This is something that scum!LightWolf would see as townie though and be incentivized to kill him since he's nearly escaping the NOC format to do this by posting the picture elsewhere on the site.

I think Hawkie's play during this f3 has been confusing and shady.

LightWolf is also frustrating to read because of how hard it was to push the ideas out of him that I KNOW he would have had. It felt like he was deliberately avoiding talking about certain kill setups until prompted, because his MO is to avoid looking scummy at all costs. His reaction to SoD f3 was imo better than Hawkie's but the early defeatism was grating. Like I understand where it would be coming from as either alignment but it makes me uncomfortable.

Hawkie gets the benefit of having a good interaction with Former Hope d1 (who turned into ID) that I think if they were partners was very good. Also #HawkieHasBeenSuperTownieAllGame

But I also think that blazade is not the type of player to call out his scum team early even if jalmont/hitmonleet were "extremely bussable".

The JK stuff is weird too. I just wrote out a bunch of stuff about it but realized that if their kill was blocked it slightly removes the person from being the JK for the next target night so it doesn't actually matter.

You guys both seem like wolves to me and that probably means LightWolf is town. Also I get to sheep my TOP TOWN THAT WE ALL LYNCHED YESTERDAY

I'm going to vote after I grab a late lunch just to make sure I'm cozy with it. After I vote that's my last post on the forum for a while and I won't be reading postgame or checking if we won or not. Since this vote is also slightly counter intuitive I'm expecting us to lose and hawkie was town all along, to which I can already hear the echo chamber shouting "lolempoof".
 
by the way before empoof loses this fucking game I want to say subs actually ruined this I've been coming off scum all game when they sub themselves the fuck out because I think it's incredibly shitty for mafia to do that and gave the new person the benefit of the doubt and it's just slapped me in the fucking face when someone i fucking scumread subs out and the new player who comes in is experienced and gets to ride the fact he's "reading over the game" to lie low until executing drastic lylo plans is just ABSOLUTE FUCKING BULLSHIT FUCKING BULLSHIT WHAT THE FUCK mafia don't deserve this fucking win i'm done im not posting anymore bye
 
I had a blast

You're all beautiful people

One day I'll be good at f3s, but it is not this day


Vote Hawkie

gg I think everyone played well except Walrein, sorry if we lose moody <3

In my heart I won by knowing knights was town, that's all I can ask for.

Also something something It's not about the result it's about the journey



Bye friends
 
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