Welcome to Heroic Tavern Brawl, where Standard gets the Arena treatment and may the best regular competitive player win. AKA Beta Tournament Mode with a
one thousand golderino buy-in
For my own reference as much as anyone else's,
expected rewards:
35% win rate: 23.5% chance for 3+ wins (step up in rewards), 5.6% chance for 5+ wins (break-even), .2% chance for 9+ wins (big boy rewards).
40% win rate: 31.7% chance for 3+ wins, 9.6% chance for 5+ wins, .6% chance for 9+ wins.
45% win rate: 40.7% chance for 3+ wins, 15.3% chance for 5+ wins, 1.5% chance for 9+ wins.
50% win rate: 50.0% chance for 3+ wins, 22.7% chance for 5+ wins, 3.3% chance for 9+ wins.
55% win rate: 59.3% chance for 3+ wins, 31.6% chance for 5+ wins, 6.5% chance for 9+ wins.
60% win rate: 68.3% chance for 3+ wins, 42.0% chance for 5+ wins, 11.9% chance for 9+ wins.
*approximate win rate needed for even odds at beating the house: 63.5884%
65% win rate: 76.5% chance for 3+ wins, 53.2% chance for 5+ wins, 20.0% chance for 9+ wins.
70% win rate: 83.7% chance for 3+ wins, 64.7% chance for 5+ wins, 31.3% chance for 9+ wins.
<35% win rate: lol
>70% win rate:
stop your fuckin lyin
One 9-win run will pay for roughly 2.4 runs. One 10-win will pay for four. One 11-win run will pay for 5.76 runs. One 12-win run is wurf it if you can do it once out of twelve tries. (Some digging on reddit found me an official comment that says the current limit is five attempts max.)
According to more reddit digging because it's math I don't care about, the average run will net a player ~700 dust (gold), which means an average run roughly breaks even on value if paying the entry fee in $$$real money$$$ but loses ~300g in gold.
Remind yourself that overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer.